2024 Season Preview: The East
Apr 4, 2024 21:07:34 GMT -5
Braves GM (Eric), White Sox GM (Micheal), and 2 more like this
Post by Red Sox GM (Nick) on Apr 4, 2024 21:07:34 GMT -5
Part three of the 2023 Mibble season preview is here! Keep the comments flowing as Week 1 wraps up, and stay tuned for playoff predictions and polls.
****************************
NL EAST
New York Mets
'23 Finish: 48-123-9, 4th in division; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 5th in division
Offseason Acquisition: The Metropolitans acquired a buy-low candidate in Trevor Story, who really has not justified his Mibble salary in a few seasons. Story essentially is the short-term successor to Francisco Lindor, who somewhat shockingly was lost in free agency despite the 30% HTD advantage. In fact the free agent additions this winter were effectively limited to a couple of bullpen adds that are most likely future trade chips at best for a Mibble organization that is probably at least 2-3 years from sniffing the playoffs in search of what would be their second ever postseason appearance (2019).
Breakout/Sleeper: Brayan Rocchio is set to be the starting shortstop IRL for Cleveland. In Mibble, the Mets front office made a couple of nifty trades in a row to land their potential long-term shortstop. Rocchio displayed good plate discipline and speed with respectable pop in the minors, and after getting his feet wet in the majors late last year, he should have every opportunity in 2024 to translate his several years of top 100 prospect status to big league success.
State of the Farm: Definitely improving and arguably above average. A year ago under the prior Mets regime, I struggled to be nice in my write-up. Most moves over the past year under Conor have been to move veteran or AAAA talent for longer term assets. The non-Mets prospects include a number of highly-ranked players such as Adael Amador, Cole Young, Termarr Johnson, and Royber Salinas in addition to other intriguing names to watch like Gunnar Hoglund.
Biggest Question Mark: How many licks to the center of a Tootsie Pop? In all seriousness, the biggest question for the Mibble Mets in 2024 is how they will utilize nearly $30 in cap space. With most orgs at or tight to the cap, it is a matter of time before the trade market will heat up with expiring deals and buy-low candidates that contenders are motivated to move.
Arrow Up/Down: Bottomed out. The farm improved this offseason, but a weak major league roster to end the 2023 season is even weaker to begin 2024. Chances are this is the low point, and the Mibble Mets should trend upward the remainder of the decade.
Philadelphia Phillies
'23 Finish: 47-125-8, 5th in division; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 4th in division
Offseason Acquisition: They cost a good chunk of cash, but the rebuilding Phillies added a couple of solid free agent infielders in Willy Adames and Ryan McMahon this offseason. With other spots in the active lineup starting to fill with good pieces such as Bryson Stott and Bo Naylor, adding these vets will allow Philly to start being more competitive week to week offensively.
Breakout/Sleeper: Going with Orion Kerkering here. The Mibble Phillies still have a long way to go on the pitching staff, but a high-octane arm like Kerkering will help. The 2022 fifth-round pick soared through the Pharm system with 53.2 innings of 1.51 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 79 K, and only 12 BB – culminating with a big league cup of coffee in September and even October. He has started the 2024 season on the IL but should return shortly and have plenty of opportunity to carve out a high leverage role in the ‘pen.
State of the Farm: The system remains well stocked with some of the names starting to get at least part-time roles in The Show including Braden Shewmake and Darrell Hernaiz. TJ surgery has unfortunately delayed the big league debut of Andrew Painter from 2023 to 2025. Several big-name hitting prospects dot the list including Luisangel Acuna, Coby Mayo, Jonatan Clase, and Drew Gilbert.
Biggest Question Mark: What moves does the front office need to make to become competitive in the NL East beyond 2024 and get that elusive first postseason appearance? The Phils are one of four Mibble franchises to never make the playoffs, along with the Blue Jays, Tigers, and Dodgers. The active lineup still has a few holes and lacks depth, and as highlighted above the pitching staff needs some love.
Arrow Up/Down: Up but a ways to go. The Phils are set to pass the Mets in the Mibble standings this year, but even approaching third place will be a challenge in 2024. Stay tuned though as the deep farm system continues to develop and churn out new major leaguers.
Miami Marlins
'23 Finish: 113-57-10, 2nd in division; lost in NLDS
'24 Prediction: 3rd in division
Offseason Acquisition: For some crazy reason last year I highlighted Corey Kluber as the notable acquisition (now retired) and Trevor Larnach as the breakout (now demoted and starting the year with turf toe). Going with a couple safer options this year, highlighting the re-signing of Corey Seager and Shohei Ohtani through 2028. Committing 35.6% of their cap to two players – who effectively are three in years that Ohtani is physically able to pitch – the Marlins otherwise appear to be resetting a bit after several years of making the playoffs including winning the 2021 World Series and making an all-in push in 2023.
Breakout/Sleeper: For the first time in five years, Larnach did not slug .700+ in spring training. Instead I will go with a sleeper pick here in 35-year-old Starling Marte. An injury-plagued 2023 saw Marte appear in only 86 games with a .248/.301/.324 slash vs a lifetime .287/.343/.445. He still stole 24 bases last year, and he is only two years removed from an All-Star campaign in which he qualified in CF and even earned MVP votes. His spring was nothing to write home about, but it would not be surprising to see Marte be an impact bat on an expiring contract helping a Mibble team to a 2024 playoff appearance – it just may not be the Marlins.
State of the Farm: After making an aggressive push to contend in 2023, an already sparse farm system a year ago is roughly the same now, just with some different names. Out have gone Jake Eder, Jacob Berry, and Brayan Rocchio. But Marcelo Mayer, Nick Bitsko, and Cole Phillips among others provide some hope that the Marlins are more in a retooling phase than a rebuilding one.
Biggest Question Mark: Pitching. An already thin group after trading Aaron Nola and Jose Berrios and losing Jack Flaherty to free agency, the primary starters on the roster are all injured (Ohtani, Lucas Giolito, and Ken Waldichuk). While the lineup is not exactly complete or deep either, the pitching staff is unlikely to secure many categories in 2024 and will need help moving forward even with Ohtani and Giolito returning in 2025.
Arrow Up/Down: Down but not all the way. Re-signing two of the best hitters in baseball will keep the offense respectable while the front office reorganizes the roster around them. Plus the Mets and Phils remain a class or two below where the Marlins should land in the 2024 standings. But honestly not sure I see even .500 for this iteration of the fish. 70 wins could even be a challenge barring any moves to bring in more talent or utilize the open cap space.
Washington Nationals
'23 Finish: 74-95-11, 3rd in division; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 2nd in division
Offseason Acquisition: Assuming a successful return from his second TJ surgery, Walker Buehler was the biggest get for Mibble Washington this offseason. The two-time All-Star and perennial Cy Young contender has a career 3.02 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 638.1 IP in the majors. The stacked IRL Dodgers have plenty of SP depth to be patient and cautious with Buehler, who only tossed two MiLB innings in 2023. Turning 30 this summer, Buehler likely still has some peak years left in him, and should things not pan out in terms of his health or performance, they can always decline their 2026 club option.
Breakout/Sleeper: After several years of making the top 100 prospect lists, IF Curtis Mead has a shot to break out at the major league level in 2024. The 23-year-old Australian did not have a particularly notable spring line (.265/.339/.347), though he did display the plate discipline (5 BB, 5 K) that has been improving each year in the minors. A .302/.376/.514 hitter over 1262 PA mostly in the Rays farm system, it feels like Mead only needs some consistent playing time in The Show to shine through.
State of the Farm: We gushed a year ago about many of the same headliners including Mead, Kyle Manzardo, Brady House, Jack Leiter, and Cade Cavalli. Possibly the best farm in all of Mibble is starting to hit the bigs, including Elly De La Cruz in 2023. Keep an eye on future major league OF Spencer Jones and Dylan Crews.
Biggest Question Mark: Is this the year the remaining gaps in the active roster (2B, CF, bullpen, depth) start to fill in, or will it be 2025? A couple of years ago it felt like the Orioles were in a similar position, and then they seemed to arrive a year ahead of schedule. The hourglass is nearly empty on the Marlins and Braves maintaining a stranglehold on the top two spots in the division.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. I was right about the Nats eclipsing 70 wins last year (*pats self on back*), and I think .500 is a realistic goal in 2024. The math for reaching the playoffs is probably dependent upon some prospects debuting, which means maaaaybe 2024 if the Central beats up on itself enough. More likely than not, 2025 is the year the Nationals stand a good chance of reaching the playoffs for the first time since winning it all in the inaugural Mibble season (2016).
Atlanta Braves
'23 Finish: 114-58-8, 1st in division; Mibble world champions
'24 Prediction: 1st in division
Offseason Acquisition: CJ Abrams, who is also a popular breakout pick for 2024, is a tremendous backfill for Marcus Semien, who departed in free agency after collecting his 2023 World Series rings in Mibble and IRL. The 23-year-old Abrams hit 18 HR and stole 47 bags in 2023, with most of those totals coming in the second half. A top 10 prospect coming into the 2022 season, Abrams had a sparkling .331/.385/.511 line across just 114 games in the minor leagues and seems poised for big things moving forward.
Breakout/Sleeper: Jarred Kelenic has had three major league seasons so far to fulfill the star-studded expectations that made him the prize return for the Mariners in the Robinson Cano / Edwin Diaz trade in December 2018. The M’s seemingly gave up on him officially this winter, dealing him to the Braves IRL in what was largely an exchange of unwanted and/or questionable pieces for both sides. The Mibble Braves then reeled him in from the Red Sox in exchange for fellow OF Jarren Duran. In a loaded Braves lineup, maybe the reduced pressure and expectations will enable Kelenic – who is only 24 years old – to finally break through in The Show as a post-hype sleeper.
State of the Farm: Not much is protected at this point, but does it matter any time soon? Much of the major league roster is under multiple years of control in or entering the primes of their careers, and the only real threats are injury or squeezing in escalating arb salaries.
Biggest Question Mark: Winners of the last two division titles and five of the last six – how many more years will they rule the NL East? But more pressing for 2024, can they become the first Mibble two-time / repeat world champs? As long as they are healthy, there are not many Mibble teams that can hang with them beyond a fluke week.
Arrow Up/Down: Neutral, but dare I say up? Bet everything on the locks to win the NL East – if this were horse racing, they might barely pay $2.10 to win.
**********************************
AL EAST
Toronto Blue Jays
'23 Finish: 72-94-14, 4th in AL East; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 5th in AL East
Offseason Acquisition: Francisco Lindor. The Blue Jays made a huge splash in FA, shelling out $14.5 worth of loonies and toonies to overcome the Mets %30 hometown discount and land the 3rd ranked SS on the player rater. Lindor is 30 years old this season, so it is fair wonder how many more years he can put up elite production but $14.5 isn't terrible for a 30/30 SS who scored 108 R and drove in 98 more. Monster pickup north of the border. You have to wonder what the plan for him is, will he be trade bait after the waiting period ends to being in more talent to the roster? Or does his signing signify a willingness to go for it and try to surround him with enough talent to win a title in the next 2 or 3 years?
Breakout/Sleeper: Davis Schneider. You could argue that Schneider has already broken out, but his numbers tailed off quite a bit after the scorching hot start to his career and he is going to have to show that it wasn't a Kevin Maas-esque flash in the pan. He should get some ABs as the short side of the platoon in LF and fight with Cavan Biggio for ABs against RHP as well. It is hard not to root for the 28th round pick out of Vorhees NJ with the bitchin porn stache and rec specs. Defensive versatility, good plate discipline and enough power to keep pitchers honest could earn him a regular spot for the Mibble Blue Jays as well as the ones in Toronto.
State of the Farm: OK, not great. The IRL Blue Jays have not done a great job of drafting and developing talent in recent years and the Mibble Jays had a long run of trading away the prospects that they did have in order to support the big league club. That philosophy has changed recently with 4 of the team’s top 5 prospects still on the roster and forming the basis of the farm club. Orelvis Martinez should contribute at some point this season and he has some solid power upside but the rest of the higher end talent still needs a few more years to prove before they are ready to come up to the show.
Biggest Question Mark: Direction. This is a team with some bright spots and some big holes that honestly you could take either direction as far as competing V. rebuilding. The lineup has needs at 1B and OF, the rotation lacks depth and there is not much there in the way of high leverage arms to notch SV/HLD. Lindor and Lourdes Gurriel were added to a core that included Danny Jansen, Tommy Edman and Alek Manoah. Orelvis Martinez and Davis Schneider could help out but there just aren't enough secondary pieces at the moment.
Arrow Up/Down: Down/neutral. I don't know what to put here because I don't know what ownership’s plan for this team is. It seems like a middle of the table sort of roster right now that could overperform if they make some shrewd trades and get a little luck, or they could be selling everything off at the deadline in order to reload for '25 and beyond when some of the younger prospects will be matriculating north.
New York Yankees
'23 Finish: 64-103-13, 5th in AL East; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 4th in AL East
Offseason acquisition: Nico Hoerner. A year after nabbing Aaron Judge in FA, the Yankees added another this offseason when they pulled off a trade for the Cubs 2B. Nico brings a lot of balance to the lineup piling up 43 SB, 98 R along with a .283 AVG at the keystone while also adding enough starts to maintain his SS eligibility into 2024. A very solid addition to what is now a pretty good lineup.
Breakout/Sleeper: Wade Meckler. A super fast riser last year going from the 8th round of the 2022 draft to his big league debut last year. Combined between three levels in '23 Meckler slashed an absurd .371/.456/.510 in the minors before briefly cracking the Giants roster. He struggled a bit in his first taste of the majors, but that is pretty common. The Giants signing of Jung Hoo Lee puts a damper on hopes of Meckler starting the year with the CF job by the Bay but he should be the next man up if injury or inconsistency strike Conforto, Soler or Yastrzemski. Meckler is having a great performance so far in the Cactus league and if he can carry that over to AAA to start the season, I imagine they will find a way to get him into the lineup. Honorable mention here to Pirates pitcher Jackson Wolf, another quick to the majors story from the 2021 draft who has a wide open opportunity to grab a rotation spot in Pittsburgh (**press time edit: Wolf was traded 4/2 back to the Padres IRL**).
State of the Farm: Not terrible. Jasson Dominguez still qualifies despite his appearance in the bigs last year, and while his injury is a bummer which will keep him out most of 2024, but perhaps he can provide some value as a DH before the summer is out. Luis Gil has looked very sharp this spring and if he can keep the walks in check a little bit he could be a contributor quite soon. Roderick Arias is by far the highest upside play in the lower minors offering 30/30 potential with plus defense at SS, but he is only 19 and 'tis many a slip twixt A ball the majors. George Lombard is right behind him and while he doesn't have the same upside he also projects to be a major leaguer with middle infield defensive ability.
Biggest Question Mark: Health. As I write this Gerrit Cole is having an MRI on his elbow, 1B Rhys Hoskins is coming off a lost season with a torn ACL, Aaron Judge is dealing with an abdominal injury and Jasson Dominguez is rehabbing TJS. Basically all of the team’s top players are dealing with something and there isn’t enough depth on the roster to cover for them if they end up missing significant time or production lags. Basically this team would need some amount of luck to compete with the teams above them in their division and that may be too tight a needle to thread if everyone isn't healthy and performing.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. The Yankees made some roster additions that will make them frisky this year, and I am predicting them to move up a spot in the AL East standings this year, but I think they still have some work to do before they are really ready to compete. A few more moves between now and next season could get them there.
Tampa Bay Rays
'23 Finish: 105-59-16, 2nd in AL East; lost in ALDS
'24 Prediction: 3rd in AL East
Offseason Acquisition: Brandon Lowe. Another trade returning a 6th year player to his hometown team for the %30 discount. Per OPS+ Lowe has been average or better every year of his career, even earning some down ballot MVP votes in '20 & '21. Lowe is a perfect fit for the Rays lineup balancing it out by adding some much needed pop at a weak position. 41-year-old Justin Verlander was also added this year in hopes he still has enough in the tank to lead the pitching staff.
Breakout/Sleeper: The combination of Cal Raleigh / Steven Kwan. Just like a Pizza Hut and Taco Bell under the same roof, these guys provide wildly disparate experiences that combine surprisingly well. Raleigh is a masher who has averaged 31 HR per 162 games for his career with terrible batting averages while Kwan has only managed 11 HR in his first 1300 PA paired with a .282 average. But, Raleigh has managed to raise his average each of the last three years and Kwan has improved his power with an extra 10 XBH last season. If these two can meet in the middle and combine for a .260-.270 average with 40+ HR and 150 RBI that could go a long way to powering Tampa’s offense.
State of the Farm: Largely nonexistent. The Rays have been trading away prospects for big leaguers for years which has kept them competitive with an astonishing 8 for 8 run of playoff appearances. They've held on to SS Brayden Taylor who looks like he could inhabit that roster spot for Tampa in a few years and the Rays always seem to pop some pitching prospects out of nowhere so there could be more names on this list when the minor league season starts and we get to see what gems they have uncovered this year.
Biggest Question Mark: Depth. This is a solid roster in every area, but if the injury bug bites or there is unexpected regression somewhere there is not a lot of contingency options to cover and no prospect base left to deal from to make acquisitions. The lineup most weeks is going to be set it and forget it, with not many moving parts to swap in and out but a lot of weeks that will get it done. They will compete in all categories.
Arrow Up/Down: Down. The only team in the Mibble to make the playoffs every year of play the Rays will attempt to climb that hill one more time this year. They might have it in them to do it but this feels like getting the band back together for a last run. With Verlander, Goldschmidt, Jorge Soler and Lance Lynn all having prominent roster spots this is an older roster without much youth on the way. It will be interesting to see if ownership sells off some their younger players and kicks off a full rebuild, or decides to build around them in FA and whatever draft picks the team makes this year.
Boston Red Sox
'23 Finish: 74-95-11, 3rd in AL East; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 2nd in AL East
Offseason Acquisition: Trea Turner. The Sox had their SS of the future coming up the ladder in 2021 draft pick Marcelo Mayer, but apparently decided that the future needed to happen sooner rather than later, dealing Mayer to the Marlins for Trea Turner in a cap neutral deal. Turner is signed to a reasonable $12.1 for the next 4 years and, at age 30, remains a great power/speed combo from the 6 hole and the coolest slide in baseball. Turner should anchor the Red Sox lineup for long enough to see some very competitive teams in the coming years.
Breakout/Sleeper: Chris Paddack. I don't often choose guys in their 6th year of arbitration for this category, but I think Paddack might finally deliver on the considerable promise he showed as a young pitcher in the Padres organization. Paddack debuted with a 126 ERA+ over 140 IP as a 23y/o in 2019, but failed to reach league average in any subsequent season, succumbing to TJS in 2022. He made it back to the majors for 5 IP last year and averaged a career high 95.6 on his fastball in that short stint. Hopefully for the IRL Twins and the Mibble Red Sox he can pair that velocity with his always solid changeup to miss a lot of bats in 2024.
State of the Farm: Quite good. Junior Caminero is a top 5 prospect in all of baseball and got his feet wet in the bigs last year. He will likely start the year in the minors but, as long as the defense holds up, looks like he will cement himself as Boston’s 3B very soon. Roman Anthony was a developmental success story as a 3rd round pick turned top prospect and hit at every stop as he progressed from A to A+ to AA last year. Kyle Teel hit the ground running and reached AA in his draft year after being taken 14th overall and immediately looking like a steal. Ceddanne Rafaela made his debut in Boston last year and looks to have at least a share of a role heading into 2024 and looks to have a bright future roaming the OF of Fenway. The weakness in this system is evident on the pitching side however, as Wikelman Gonzalez and Luis Perales are names to watch but don’t have the kind of upside you would hope for, and the Red Sox have not had a great track record developing pitchers recently.
Biggest Question Mark: Starting pitching. The Red Sox have good depth up and down the lineup and should win more offensive categories than they lose most weeks, but it remains to be seen if the pitching can keep up. A handful of solid-if-unspectacular names head the rotation in F. Montas and N. Cortes. Breakout pick Paddack and journeyman Nick Martinez join reliever turned starter Reynaldo Lopez as guys that might surprise but at the outset of the season seem like shaky bets to rely too heavily on. Unlike on the hitting side reinforcements from the farm system are not imminent, the Red Sox may have to turn to the trade market to bolster their staff if they are to compete deep into the playoffs.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. A good mix of FA veterans and ARB players with high level prospects on the way to reinforce should keep the lineup stocked for years to come. Some shrewd moves to add to the bullpen depth has helped, but there is still work to be done to the pitching staff to truly get this team to compete for titles.
Baltimore Orioles
'23 Finish: 117-49-14, 1st in AL East; lost in ALCS
'24 Prediction: 1st in AL East
Offseason Acquisition: Corbin Burnes. In their ALCS loss to the Royals in 2023 the O's came up a bit short in the pitching department, losing every non bullpen category on that side of the ledger. Add in losing Shane McClanahan, Kyle Bradish, and Shane Baz to the dreaded UCL injury and Julio Urias for other reasons, the Orioles had a big need in the rotation and they addressed it in a big way. Mibble reflected MLB reality as the O's swung a trade with the Brewers sending young SS Joey Ortiz to the land of the Bronze Fonz in exchange for the ace on the expiring contract, Corbin Burnes. Burnes probably had more value to the Birds than other teams in the league as the 30% discount next offseason will likely mean that Burnes can helm the Baltimore rotation for years to come.
Breakout/Sleeper: Tie. Elehuris Montero & Nick Lodolo. Montero has had a history of ups and downs as he traversed the minor leagues, sometimes needing a second look at a level before finding his footing there. The pattern may follow in the big leagues this year as well; after struggling to a .544 OPS in the first half last year he spent some time back in the bus leagues before getting the call back to Colorado and sporting an .817 OPS the rest of the way. He has looked good so far in Grapefruit league play, cutting back on his strikeouts a bit while maintaining his XBH power. He could put it all together for a big year in '24. Lodolo was a consensus top 100 prospect prior to a very promising 2022 debut that saw him finish 6th in the ROY voting but, while he maintained a great K rate in 2023, he was much more hittable leading to a 6.29 ERA and 73 ERA+. A fresh start this season with another year of experience should do him some good and he could be a powerful weapon behind Corbin Burnes in the Baltimore rotation.
State of the Farm: Excellent at the top. The O's have been dealing for MLB talent for most of their tenure in the Mibble, and have not added very many impact prospects from other organizations. However (and probably most importantly) they have excelled at identifying which of their homegrown prospects to keep out of trade talks. With Rutschman, Westburg and Bautista already contributing bigly to the MLB team, the O's still have Jackson Holliday, Sam Basallo, Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad knocking on the door. The general lack of prospect depth won't hurt when the top guys are this good.
Biggest Question Mark: Batting average. Injuries have already started biting this team a bit, but they have good depth and everyone has injury problems. As far as roster construction goes, the lineup will rely on a lot of guys that will struggle to hit their weight in terms of average. Schwarber, Volpe, Suarez, Urias and, to a lesser extent Santander, Garcia and Gimenez, despite being very solid offensive contributors in other categories, could all drag down the AVG category a lot of weeks. We don't track strikeout records for hitters but if we did this team might challenge it. It probably won’t matter in the regular season but in a playoff matchup every category counts!
Arrow Up/Down: Up. Not a lot of places to go after reaching the ALCS last year, but this team should be right back in the thick of it this year AND should be welcoming the #1 prospect in all of baseball to their roster in short order as well. This team is built to contend and the window looks wide open for the near future.
****************************
NL EAST
New York Mets
'23 Finish: 48-123-9, 4th in division; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 5th in division
Offseason Acquisition: The Metropolitans acquired a buy-low candidate in Trevor Story, who really has not justified his Mibble salary in a few seasons. Story essentially is the short-term successor to Francisco Lindor, who somewhat shockingly was lost in free agency despite the 30% HTD advantage. In fact the free agent additions this winter were effectively limited to a couple of bullpen adds that are most likely future trade chips at best for a Mibble organization that is probably at least 2-3 years from sniffing the playoffs in search of what would be their second ever postseason appearance (2019).
Breakout/Sleeper: Brayan Rocchio is set to be the starting shortstop IRL for Cleveland. In Mibble, the Mets front office made a couple of nifty trades in a row to land their potential long-term shortstop. Rocchio displayed good plate discipline and speed with respectable pop in the minors, and after getting his feet wet in the majors late last year, he should have every opportunity in 2024 to translate his several years of top 100 prospect status to big league success.
State of the Farm: Definitely improving and arguably above average. A year ago under the prior Mets regime, I struggled to be nice in my write-up. Most moves over the past year under Conor have been to move veteran or AAAA talent for longer term assets. The non-Mets prospects include a number of highly-ranked players such as Adael Amador, Cole Young, Termarr Johnson, and Royber Salinas in addition to other intriguing names to watch like Gunnar Hoglund.
Biggest Question Mark: How many licks to the center of a Tootsie Pop? In all seriousness, the biggest question for the Mibble Mets in 2024 is how they will utilize nearly $30 in cap space. With most orgs at or tight to the cap, it is a matter of time before the trade market will heat up with expiring deals and buy-low candidates that contenders are motivated to move.
Arrow Up/Down: Bottomed out. The farm improved this offseason, but a weak major league roster to end the 2023 season is even weaker to begin 2024. Chances are this is the low point, and the Mibble Mets should trend upward the remainder of the decade.
Philadelphia Phillies
'23 Finish: 47-125-8, 5th in division; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 4th in division
Offseason Acquisition: They cost a good chunk of cash, but the rebuilding Phillies added a couple of solid free agent infielders in Willy Adames and Ryan McMahon this offseason. With other spots in the active lineup starting to fill with good pieces such as Bryson Stott and Bo Naylor, adding these vets will allow Philly to start being more competitive week to week offensively.
Breakout/Sleeper: Going with Orion Kerkering here. The Mibble Phillies still have a long way to go on the pitching staff, but a high-octane arm like Kerkering will help. The 2022 fifth-round pick soared through the Pharm system with 53.2 innings of 1.51 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 79 K, and only 12 BB – culminating with a big league cup of coffee in September and even October. He has started the 2024 season on the IL but should return shortly and have plenty of opportunity to carve out a high leverage role in the ‘pen.
State of the Farm: The system remains well stocked with some of the names starting to get at least part-time roles in The Show including Braden Shewmake and Darrell Hernaiz. TJ surgery has unfortunately delayed the big league debut of Andrew Painter from 2023 to 2025. Several big-name hitting prospects dot the list including Luisangel Acuna, Coby Mayo, Jonatan Clase, and Drew Gilbert.
Biggest Question Mark: What moves does the front office need to make to become competitive in the NL East beyond 2024 and get that elusive first postseason appearance? The Phils are one of four Mibble franchises to never make the playoffs, along with the Blue Jays, Tigers, and Dodgers. The active lineup still has a few holes and lacks depth, and as highlighted above the pitching staff needs some love.
Arrow Up/Down: Up but a ways to go. The Phils are set to pass the Mets in the Mibble standings this year, but even approaching third place will be a challenge in 2024. Stay tuned though as the deep farm system continues to develop and churn out new major leaguers.
Miami Marlins
'23 Finish: 113-57-10, 2nd in division; lost in NLDS
'24 Prediction: 3rd in division
Offseason Acquisition: For some crazy reason last year I highlighted Corey Kluber as the notable acquisition (now retired) and Trevor Larnach as the breakout (now demoted and starting the year with turf toe). Going with a couple safer options this year, highlighting the re-signing of Corey Seager and Shohei Ohtani through 2028. Committing 35.6% of their cap to two players – who effectively are three in years that Ohtani is physically able to pitch – the Marlins otherwise appear to be resetting a bit after several years of making the playoffs including winning the 2021 World Series and making an all-in push in 2023.
Breakout/Sleeper: For the first time in five years, Larnach did not slug .700+ in spring training. Instead I will go with a sleeper pick here in 35-year-old Starling Marte. An injury-plagued 2023 saw Marte appear in only 86 games with a .248/.301/.324 slash vs a lifetime .287/.343/.445. He still stole 24 bases last year, and he is only two years removed from an All-Star campaign in which he qualified in CF and even earned MVP votes. His spring was nothing to write home about, but it would not be surprising to see Marte be an impact bat on an expiring contract helping a Mibble team to a 2024 playoff appearance – it just may not be the Marlins.
State of the Farm: After making an aggressive push to contend in 2023, an already sparse farm system a year ago is roughly the same now, just with some different names. Out have gone Jake Eder, Jacob Berry, and Brayan Rocchio. But Marcelo Mayer, Nick Bitsko, and Cole Phillips among others provide some hope that the Marlins are more in a retooling phase than a rebuilding one.
Biggest Question Mark: Pitching. An already thin group after trading Aaron Nola and Jose Berrios and losing Jack Flaherty to free agency, the primary starters on the roster are all injured (Ohtani, Lucas Giolito, and Ken Waldichuk). While the lineup is not exactly complete or deep either, the pitching staff is unlikely to secure many categories in 2024 and will need help moving forward even with Ohtani and Giolito returning in 2025.
Arrow Up/Down: Down but not all the way. Re-signing two of the best hitters in baseball will keep the offense respectable while the front office reorganizes the roster around them. Plus the Mets and Phils remain a class or two below where the Marlins should land in the 2024 standings. But honestly not sure I see even .500 for this iteration of the fish. 70 wins could even be a challenge barring any moves to bring in more talent or utilize the open cap space.
Washington Nationals
'23 Finish: 74-95-11, 3rd in division; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 2nd in division
Offseason Acquisition: Assuming a successful return from his second TJ surgery, Walker Buehler was the biggest get for Mibble Washington this offseason. The two-time All-Star and perennial Cy Young contender has a career 3.02 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 638.1 IP in the majors. The stacked IRL Dodgers have plenty of SP depth to be patient and cautious with Buehler, who only tossed two MiLB innings in 2023. Turning 30 this summer, Buehler likely still has some peak years left in him, and should things not pan out in terms of his health or performance, they can always decline their 2026 club option.
Breakout/Sleeper: After several years of making the top 100 prospect lists, IF Curtis Mead has a shot to break out at the major league level in 2024. The 23-year-old Australian did not have a particularly notable spring line (.265/.339/.347), though he did display the plate discipline (5 BB, 5 K) that has been improving each year in the minors. A .302/.376/.514 hitter over 1262 PA mostly in the Rays farm system, it feels like Mead only needs some consistent playing time in The Show to shine through.
State of the Farm: We gushed a year ago about many of the same headliners including Mead, Kyle Manzardo, Brady House, Jack Leiter, and Cade Cavalli. Possibly the best farm in all of Mibble is starting to hit the bigs, including Elly De La Cruz in 2023. Keep an eye on future major league OF Spencer Jones and Dylan Crews.
Biggest Question Mark: Is this the year the remaining gaps in the active roster (2B, CF, bullpen, depth) start to fill in, or will it be 2025? A couple of years ago it felt like the Orioles were in a similar position, and then they seemed to arrive a year ahead of schedule. The hourglass is nearly empty on the Marlins and Braves maintaining a stranglehold on the top two spots in the division.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. I was right about the Nats eclipsing 70 wins last year (*pats self on back*), and I think .500 is a realistic goal in 2024. The math for reaching the playoffs is probably dependent upon some prospects debuting, which means maaaaybe 2024 if the Central beats up on itself enough. More likely than not, 2025 is the year the Nationals stand a good chance of reaching the playoffs for the first time since winning it all in the inaugural Mibble season (2016).
Atlanta Braves
'23 Finish: 114-58-8, 1st in division; Mibble world champions
'24 Prediction: 1st in division
Offseason Acquisition: CJ Abrams, who is also a popular breakout pick for 2024, is a tremendous backfill for Marcus Semien, who departed in free agency after collecting his 2023 World Series rings in Mibble and IRL. The 23-year-old Abrams hit 18 HR and stole 47 bags in 2023, with most of those totals coming in the second half. A top 10 prospect coming into the 2022 season, Abrams had a sparkling .331/.385/.511 line across just 114 games in the minor leagues and seems poised for big things moving forward.
Breakout/Sleeper: Jarred Kelenic has had three major league seasons so far to fulfill the star-studded expectations that made him the prize return for the Mariners in the Robinson Cano / Edwin Diaz trade in December 2018. The M’s seemingly gave up on him officially this winter, dealing him to the Braves IRL in what was largely an exchange of unwanted and/or questionable pieces for both sides. The Mibble Braves then reeled him in from the Red Sox in exchange for fellow OF Jarren Duran. In a loaded Braves lineup, maybe the reduced pressure and expectations will enable Kelenic – who is only 24 years old – to finally break through in The Show as a post-hype sleeper.
State of the Farm: Not much is protected at this point, but does it matter any time soon? Much of the major league roster is under multiple years of control in or entering the primes of their careers, and the only real threats are injury or squeezing in escalating arb salaries.
Biggest Question Mark: Winners of the last two division titles and five of the last six – how many more years will they rule the NL East? But more pressing for 2024, can they become the first Mibble two-time / repeat world champs? As long as they are healthy, there are not many Mibble teams that can hang with them beyond a fluke week.
Arrow Up/Down: Neutral, but dare I say up? Bet everything on the locks to win the NL East – if this were horse racing, they might barely pay $2.10 to win.
**********************************
AL EAST
Toronto Blue Jays
'23 Finish: 72-94-14, 4th in AL East; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 5th in AL East
Offseason Acquisition: Francisco Lindor. The Blue Jays made a huge splash in FA, shelling out $14.5 worth of loonies and toonies to overcome the Mets %30 hometown discount and land the 3rd ranked SS on the player rater. Lindor is 30 years old this season, so it is fair wonder how many more years he can put up elite production but $14.5 isn't terrible for a 30/30 SS who scored 108 R and drove in 98 more. Monster pickup north of the border. You have to wonder what the plan for him is, will he be trade bait after the waiting period ends to being in more talent to the roster? Or does his signing signify a willingness to go for it and try to surround him with enough talent to win a title in the next 2 or 3 years?
Breakout/Sleeper: Davis Schneider. You could argue that Schneider has already broken out, but his numbers tailed off quite a bit after the scorching hot start to his career and he is going to have to show that it wasn't a Kevin Maas-esque flash in the pan. He should get some ABs as the short side of the platoon in LF and fight with Cavan Biggio for ABs against RHP as well. It is hard not to root for the 28th round pick out of Vorhees NJ with the bitchin porn stache and rec specs. Defensive versatility, good plate discipline and enough power to keep pitchers honest could earn him a regular spot for the Mibble Blue Jays as well as the ones in Toronto.
State of the Farm: OK, not great. The IRL Blue Jays have not done a great job of drafting and developing talent in recent years and the Mibble Jays had a long run of trading away the prospects that they did have in order to support the big league club. That philosophy has changed recently with 4 of the team’s top 5 prospects still on the roster and forming the basis of the farm club. Orelvis Martinez should contribute at some point this season and he has some solid power upside but the rest of the higher end talent still needs a few more years to prove before they are ready to come up to the show.
Biggest Question Mark: Direction. This is a team with some bright spots and some big holes that honestly you could take either direction as far as competing V. rebuilding. The lineup has needs at 1B and OF, the rotation lacks depth and there is not much there in the way of high leverage arms to notch SV/HLD. Lindor and Lourdes Gurriel were added to a core that included Danny Jansen, Tommy Edman and Alek Manoah. Orelvis Martinez and Davis Schneider could help out but there just aren't enough secondary pieces at the moment.
Arrow Up/Down: Down/neutral. I don't know what to put here because I don't know what ownership’s plan for this team is. It seems like a middle of the table sort of roster right now that could overperform if they make some shrewd trades and get a little luck, or they could be selling everything off at the deadline in order to reload for '25 and beyond when some of the younger prospects will be matriculating north.
New York Yankees
'23 Finish: 64-103-13, 5th in AL East; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 4th in AL East
Offseason acquisition: Nico Hoerner. A year after nabbing Aaron Judge in FA, the Yankees added another this offseason when they pulled off a trade for the Cubs 2B. Nico brings a lot of balance to the lineup piling up 43 SB, 98 R along with a .283 AVG at the keystone while also adding enough starts to maintain his SS eligibility into 2024. A very solid addition to what is now a pretty good lineup.
Breakout/Sleeper: Wade Meckler. A super fast riser last year going from the 8th round of the 2022 draft to his big league debut last year. Combined between three levels in '23 Meckler slashed an absurd .371/.456/.510 in the minors before briefly cracking the Giants roster. He struggled a bit in his first taste of the majors, but that is pretty common. The Giants signing of Jung Hoo Lee puts a damper on hopes of Meckler starting the year with the CF job by the Bay but he should be the next man up if injury or inconsistency strike Conforto, Soler or Yastrzemski. Meckler is having a great performance so far in the Cactus league and if he can carry that over to AAA to start the season, I imagine they will find a way to get him into the lineup. Honorable mention here to Pirates pitcher Jackson Wolf, another quick to the majors story from the 2021 draft who has a wide open opportunity to grab a rotation spot in Pittsburgh (**press time edit: Wolf was traded 4/2 back to the Padres IRL**).
State of the Farm: Not terrible. Jasson Dominguez still qualifies despite his appearance in the bigs last year, and while his injury is a bummer which will keep him out most of 2024, but perhaps he can provide some value as a DH before the summer is out. Luis Gil has looked very sharp this spring and if he can keep the walks in check a little bit he could be a contributor quite soon. Roderick Arias is by far the highest upside play in the lower minors offering 30/30 potential with plus defense at SS, but he is only 19 and 'tis many a slip twixt A ball the majors. George Lombard is right behind him and while he doesn't have the same upside he also projects to be a major leaguer with middle infield defensive ability.
Biggest Question Mark: Health. As I write this Gerrit Cole is having an MRI on his elbow, 1B Rhys Hoskins is coming off a lost season with a torn ACL, Aaron Judge is dealing with an abdominal injury and Jasson Dominguez is rehabbing TJS. Basically all of the team’s top players are dealing with something and there isn’t enough depth on the roster to cover for them if they end up missing significant time or production lags. Basically this team would need some amount of luck to compete with the teams above them in their division and that may be too tight a needle to thread if everyone isn't healthy and performing.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. The Yankees made some roster additions that will make them frisky this year, and I am predicting them to move up a spot in the AL East standings this year, but I think they still have some work to do before they are really ready to compete. A few more moves between now and next season could get them there.
Tampa Bay Rays
'23 Finish: 105-59-16, 2nd in AL East; lost in ALDS
'24 Prediction: 3rd in AL East
Offseason Acquisition: Brandon Lowe. Another trade returning a 6th year player to his hometown team for the %30 discount. Per OPS+ Lowe has been average or better every year of his career, even earning some down ballot MVP votes in '20 & '21. Lowe is a perfect fit for the Rays lineup balancing it out by adding some much needed pop at a weak position. 41-year-old Justin Verlander was also added this year in hopes he still has enough in the tank to lead the pitching staff.
Breakout/Sleeper: The combination of Cal Raleigh / Steven Kwan. Just like a Pizza Hut and Taco Bell under the same roof, these guys provide wildly disparate experiences that combine surprisingly well. Raleigh is a masher who has averaged 31 HR per 162 games for his career with terrible batting averages while Kwan has only managed 11 HR in his first 1300 PA paired with a .282 average. But, Raleigh has managed to raise his average each of the last three years and Kwan has improved his power with an extra 10 XBH last season. If these two can meet in the middle and combine for a .260-.270 average with 40+ HR and 150 RBI that could go a long way to powering Tampa’s offense.
State of the Farm: Largely nonexistent. The Rays have been trading away prospects for big leaguers for years which has kept them competitive with an astonishing 8 for 8 run of playoff appearances. They've held on to SS Brayden Taylor who looks like he could inhabit that roster spot for Tampa in a few years and the Rays always seem to pop some pitching prospects out of nowhere so there could be more names on this list when the minor league season starts and we get to see what gems they have uncovered this year.
Biggest Question Mark: Depth. This is a solid roster in every area, but if the injury bug bites or there is unexpected regression somewhere there is not a lot of contingency options to cover and no prospect base left to deal from to make acquisitions. The lineup most weeks is going to be set it and forget it, with not many moving parts to swap in and out but a lot of weeks that will get it done. They will compete in all categories.
Arrow Up/Down: Down. The only team in the Mibble to make the playoffs every year of play the Rays will attempt to climb that hill one more time this year. They might have it in them to do it but this feels like getting the band back together for a last run. With Verlander, Goldschmidt, Jorge Soler and Lance Lynn all having prominent roster spots this is an older roster without much youth on the way. It will be interesting to see if ownership sells off some their younger players and kicks off a full rebuild, or decides to build around them in FA and whatever draft picks the team makes this year.
Boston Red Sox
'23 Finish: 74-95-11, 3rd in AL East; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 2nd in AL East
Offseason Acquisition: Trea Turner. The Sox had their SS of the future coming up the ladder in 2021 draft pick Marcelo Mayer, but apparently decided that the future needed to happen sooner rather than later, dealing Mayer to the Marlins for Trea Turner in a cap neutral deal. Turner is signed to a reasonable $12.1 for the next 4 years and, at age 30, remains a great power/speed combo from the 6 hole and the coolest slide in baseball. Turner should anchor the Red Sox lineup for long enough to see some very competitive teams in the coming years.
Breakout/Sleeper: Chris Paddack. I don't often choose guys in their 6th year of arbitration for this category, but I think Paddack might finally deliver on the considerable promise he showed as a young pitcher in the Padres organization. Paddack debuted with a 126 ERA+ over 140 IP as a 23y/o in 2019, but failed to reach league average in any subsequent season, succumbing to TJS in 2022. He made it back to the majors for 5 IP last year and averaged a career high 95.6 on his fastball in that short stint. Hopefully for the IRL Twins and the Mibble Red Sox he can pair that velocity with his always solid changeup to miss a lot of bats in 2024.
State of the Farm: Quite good. Junior Caminero is a top 5 prospect in all of baseball and got his feet wet in the bigs last year. He will likely start the year in the minors but, as long as the defense holds up, looks like he will cement himself as Boston’s 3B very soon. Roman Anthony was a developmental success story as a 3rd round pick turned top prospect and hit at every stop as he progressed from A to A+ to AA last year. Kyle Teel hit the ground running and reached AA in his draft year after being taken 14th overall and immediately looking like a steal. Ceddanne Rafaela made his debut in Boston last year and looks to have at least a share of a role heading into 2024 and looks to have a bright future roaming the OF of Fenway. The weakness in this system is evident on the pitching side however, as Wikelman Gonzalez and Luis Perales are names to watch but don’t have the kind of upside you would hope for, and the Red Sox have not had a great track record developing pitchers recently.
Biggest Question Mark: Starting pitching. The Red Sox have good depth up and down the lineup and should win more offensive categories than they lose most weeks, but it remains to be seen if the pitching can keep up. A handful of solid-if-unspectacular names head the rotation in F. Montas and N. Cortes. Breakout pick Paddack and journeyman Nick Martinez join reliever turned starter Reynaldo Lopez as guys that might surprise but at the outset of the season seem like shaky bets to rely too heavily on. Unlike on the hitting side reinforcements from the farm system are not imminent, the Red Sox may have to turn to the trade market to bolster their staff if they are to compete deep into the playoffs.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. A good mix of FA veterans and ARB players with high level prospects on the way to reinforce should keep the lineup stocked for years to come. Some shrewd moves to add to the bullpen depth has helped, but there is still work to be done to the pitching staff to truly get this team to compete for titles.
Baltimore Orioles
'23 Finish: 117-49-14, 1st in AL East; lost in ALCS
'24 Prediction: 1st in AL East
Offseason Acquisition: Corbin Burnes. In their ALCS loss to the Royals in 2023 the O's came up a bit short in the pitching department, losing every non bullpen category on that side of the ledger. Add in losing Shane McClanahan, Kyle Bradish, and Shane Baz to the dreaded UCL injury and Julio Urias for other reasons, the Orioles had a big need in the rotation and they addressed it in a big way. Mibble reflected MLB reality as the O's swung a trade with the Brewers sending young SS Joey Ortiz to the land of the Bronze Fonz in exchange for the ace on the expiring contract, Corbin Burnes. Burnes probably had more value to the Birds than other teams in the league as the 30% discount next offseason will likely mean that Burnes can helm the Baltimore rotation for years to come.
Breakout/Sleeper: Tie. Elehuris Montero & Nick Lodolo. Montero has had a history of ups and downs as he traversed the minor leagues, sometimes needing a second look at a level before finding his footing there. The pattern may follow in the big leagues this year as well; after struggling to a .544 OPS in the first half last year he spent some time back in the bus leagues before getting the call back to Colorado and sporting an .817 OPS the rest of the way. He has looked good so far in Grapefruit league play, cutting back on his strikeouts a bit while maintaining his XBH power. He could put it all together for a big year in '24. Lodolo was a consensus top 100 prospect prior to a very promising 2022 debut that saw him finish 6th in the ROY voting but, while he maintained a great K rate in 2023, he was much more hittable leading to a 6.29 ERA and 73 ERA+. A fresh start this season with another year of experience should do him some good and he could be a powerful weapon behind Corbin Burnes in the Baltimore rotation.
State of the Farm: Excellent at the top. The O's have been dealing for MLB talent for most of their tenure in the Mibble, and have not added very many impact prospects from other organizations. However (and probably most importantly) they have excelled at identifying which of their homegrown prospects to keep out of trade talks. With Rutschman, Westburg and Bautista already contributing bigly to the MLB team, the O's still have Jackson Holliday, Sam Basallo, Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad knocking on the door. The general lack of prospect depth won't hurt when the top guys are this good.
Biggest Question Mark: Batting average. Injuries have already started biting this team a bit, but they have good depth and everyone has injury problems. As far as roster construction goes, the lineup will rely on a lot of guys that will struggle to hit their weight in terms of average. Schwarber, Volpe, Suarez, Urias and, to a lesser extent Santander, Garcia and Gimenez, despite being very solid offensive contributors in other categories, could all drag down the AVG category a lot of weeks. We don't track strikeout records for hitters but if we did this team might challenge it. It probably won’t matter in the regular season but in a playoff matchup every category counts!
Arrow Up/Down: Up. Not a lot of places to go after reaching the ALCS last year, but this team should be right back in the thick of it this year AND should be welcoming the #1 prospect in all of baseball to their roster in short order as well. This team is built to contend and the window looks wide open for the near future.
