Rangers / Royals

[Rangers GM (Stephen)]

Rangers give:
SP Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks) $8.2 2021
SS Addison Russell (Cubs) $1.0 5th

Royals give:
RHP Grayson Rodriguez (Orioles) $0.3 1st
www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa3008130&position=P
RHP Yefri Del Rosario (Royals) $0.3 1st (previously unprotected)
www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa3002971&position=P
LHP Kris Bubic (Royals) $0.3 1st (previously unprotected)
www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa3008128&position=P
LHP Austin Cox (Royals) $0.3 1st (previously unprotected)
www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa3007777&position=P
RHP Janser Lara (Royals) $0.3 1st (previously unprotected)
www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa917460&position=P
OF Drew Ferguson (Giants) $0.3 1st
www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa875766&position=OF
OF Mark Zagunis (Cubs) $0.3 1st
www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16565&position=OF

Caps:
Rangers -$7.1 / $90.8
Royals +$8.3 / $68.3


Players dropped from Fantrax.
I think it arguable that Greinke has the best SP contract in the league. When you compare him to his peers (of which, combining current performance and track record, there are reasonably few) his salary is incredibly competitive - and he's locked in at a relatively bargain rate for three seasons. Russell is yet to live up to his promise, but if/when he finally puts it together then I'll regret letting him go too early. As I said in an earlier trade, I'm trying to learn when to cut my losses and move on.
Jordan and I bounced around a number of names as we were forming this deal, and there were a couple I wanted that he wasn't letting me get hold of. I think we settled on a list that is mainly made up of guys that fall outside of his personal preferences, so whilst I'm not getting the stud headliner that Greinke and Russell deserve I think I'm getting a collection of mid-to-lower-end arms broad enough and interesting enough that I have growth upside to make up for it. Ferguson and Zagunis give me something in the short term while I wait for all those faraway arms to explode (hopefully positively, and not literally).
Cheers Jordan, good dealing.

[Royals GM (Jordan)]

Like Stephen, I really like Greinke through 2021 at $8.2 a year. I value him around $13 for 2019, around a $5 surplus. Even with modest decline in 2020 and 2021, he should still provide $2-4 of surplus value. My team looks like it is capable of being moderately competitive in 2019, with Cole, Corbin and Greinke forming an elite trio at the top of my staff. Greinke and Cole, and hopefully Corbin on a hometown discount, also get me closer toward my goal of being a real threat in 2020. If things don't work out as planned this year, I'll look to shop Greinke for prospects I like more than the guys I gave up in this deal. Ferguson and Zagunis are 4th outfielders on an average MLB team at best, and more likely fifth outfielders. I really like Grayson Rodriguez and Austin Cox, but I felt they were a fair price to pay for three years of good value on Greinke plus Russell--more on Russell later. Grayson has a very short track record and is extremely far away. He's a high risk, high reward guy that could definitely "explode," to take Stephen's words, but it's a risk I'm comfortable taking here, while acknowledging I could regret moving him a year from now. Cox had a very impressive pro debut and I tried to convince Stephen to take someone else, but he wouldn't budge. Most prospectors see Cox as a reliever long-term, and he had major control problems in college, so I'm also comfortable with the risk of letting him go anyway. I'm not a Del Rosario or Lara fan, as these guys have not performed at a level that suggests MLB success is ever in the cards for them. These are the kind of guys, pitchers with poor track records, I'm always eager to move. Lastly, Bubic is a solid talent with back of the rotation upside, but I don't think his upside is enough where I'll regret moving him. Addison Russell has had a troubling offseason to say the least, but he seems to be taking his problems seriously, attending therapy sessions twice a week to work on things. With a full season's PAs, I project him around $6, or a $5 surplus. Plus he's only 24 and has an amazing minor league track record and prospect pedigree, and he comes with two years of control. Plus I have no starting SS currently. Russell is post-hype, but he could definitely still breakout. I think the odds of Russell breaking out are probably better than the odds of any of the individual pitching prospects I gave up breaking out. Let's see, anyway.
In sum, it's hard to let Grayson Rodriguez and Austin Cox go, but I'm getting enough value where I think it's a reasonable chance to take. Lots of fun going back and forth on this deal to get it to a point where we were both comfortable with the value. Thanks, Stephen!

[Deleted]

Approval 1

[Braves GM (Eric)]

Approve (2-0)

[Reds GM (Kyler)]

Approve (3-0)