2024 Season Preview: The West
Mar 27, 2024 22:12:16 GMT -5
Reds GM (Kyler), Mariners GM (Travis), and 6 more like this
Post by Red Sox GM (Nick) on Mar 27, 2024 22:12:16 GMT -5
HOT OFF THE PRESSES!!!
With 2024 Opening Day upon us (!!!), Washington Nationals GM (Alex) and I take you from coast to coast to break down all 30 Mibble teams, division by division. Then we'll wrap up with playoff predictions. Best of 3 for the Braves and Royals in September ensuring the first two-time Mibble world champions? Who missed the playoffs in 2023 but is poised to get there in 2024? Is your farm system less than adequate (still, somehow)?What is Ohtani’s favorite sport to bet on? Read on to find out, and please don't hesitate to chime in with your thoughts.
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AL WEST
Oakland Athletics
'23 Finish: 30-139-11, 5th in AL West; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 5th in AL West
Offseason Acquisition: Giancarlo Stanton / Michael Stefanic. Stanton and his huge power swing moved to Oakland (Vegas?) in what was mostly a salary dump as his age (now 34), injury history (strained hamstring last year), and depleted production (last year was the first season of his career with a sub 100 WRC+) all amounted to his $7.4 salary being unpalatable. Stanton has been putting up much better contact numbers in spring training this year so there is some hope that he can raise the contact level back to something acceptable to pair with the power that never left to make him a better than average hitter again and a useful trade chip for the A's as the Mibble season progresses. In the same deal they also picked up 2B Michael Stefanic, a now 28 year old who was never much of a prospect but has put up some pretty intriguing numbers in the minor leagues, hopes aren’t that high but a bench role or the short side of a platoon is possible and getting a possible contributor and a decent shot at a trade chip is a solid deal for a salary dump.
Breakout/Sleeper: 1B Juan Yepez. For years Yepez tantalized Cardinals fans with his offensive production in the minors but his defensive limitations kept him from getting an extended look in St. Louis. Yepez signed a FA deal with the Nationals early in the offseason looking to get a chance to hit every day. The Nats’ signing of Joey Gallo put a damper on his quest, but with a quick start in AAA this year he could surpass Gallo or Joey Meneses for 1B/DH ABs in the nation’s capital where his power bat would be a welcome addition to a fairly anemic lineup.
State of the Farm: Improving. 2023 added two high upside prospects to the system, SS Jacob Wilson via the 6th overall pick in the draft and P Luis Morales via the international signing system. Tampa Bay SS Carson Williams and a pair of quality hitting backstops in Quero and Ford offer something to dream on as well. The A's will be picking 4th in this year’s draft which should add another high level prospect and the Mibble A's have shown a willingness to deal MLB talent for prospects so I expect this rapidly improving farm system to look even better next year.
Biggest Question Mark: How full will the lineup be? A rebuilding team like the A's tend to sell off assets as soon as they get playing time and do something with it, so it tends to create lineup holes. The good news is the IRL A's are so cheap they will have their own lineup holes that they will fill from within their own system so the Mibble A's may benefit from a less highly thought of prospect getting playing time with the big club that he might not get elsewhere; teams like this tend to have useful parts pop up out of nowhere.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. The prospect base here is good and getting gooder, there is some cap space to facilitate trades and more on the way after some contracts expire this season. The rebuild is fully underway and progressing nicely, with some of the prospects added the turnaround might happen faster than thought possible with the roster management inherited.
Houston Astros
'23 Finish: 100-74-6, 2nd in AL West; lost in Wild Card round
'24 Prediction: 4th in AL West
Offseason Acquisition: SP Cooper Hjerpe. The Astros were involved in the bidding for a lot of free agents, but were unable to sign anyone to the kind of bargain contract they were shopping for. So, the biggest offseason acquisition had to come from the trade market and they landed a good chip in Hjerpe. Houston was able to ship out the newly acquired Kevin Ginkel in exchange for some immediate OF help in Trent Grisham and a very solid P prospect in Cooper Hjerpe. A Golden Spikes finalist at Oregon State led to Hjerpe being selected 22nd overall in 2022 and posting a quite solid debut season in A+ ball in 2023. Look for him spend most of '24 in AA and if he can manage similar results to be up with the big club not long after. This is a nice acquisition for an Astros team in need of a young talent infusion.
Breakout/Sleeper: UTIL Joey Loperfido. a 7th round pick out of Duke in 2021, Loperfido worked his way up to 6th on the Astros top prospects list after a 2023 that saw him climb all the way from A+ ball to AAA while smacking a combined .880 OPS across 3 levels. The 'Stros are moving him around the diamond in an attempt to get his bat into the lineup playing him at 1B, 2B, and all three OF positions. He probably doesn’t have the power to profile at 1B, and 2B is likely blocked by Jose Altuve’s contract extension so OF is probably his best path to the majors. Loperfido sees a lot of pitches as both his K and BB rates are high similar to Twins 2B Edouard Julien and he has a similar profile as a ow-medium, AVG, high OBP, decent power option without a real defensive home. Look for him to debut this year after a strong spring training and provide some value to the Mibble Astros.
State of the Farm: Domestic, not exotic. The Astros management has long shown a preference for hanging on to homegrown players and it shows in the farm system as they have managed to hold on to most of their top prospects. Jacob Melton, Luis Baez, and Spencer Arrighetti headline the class from within the organization. Billy Wagner's kid Will is an intriguing prospect at 3B and a fun follow for nostalgia purposes. From outside the Org, former top prospect Corbin Martin is still hanging around and Antoine Kelly looks to move faster now that he has moved to the pen full time. Not bad overall, but lacking a little depth beyond the top few names.
Biggest Question Mark: Can they make the playoffs again? After last years season preview picked the 'Stros to finish 4th in the division and miss the playoffs by a wide margin, they made us here at the Mibble season preview team look foolish by logging 100 W and making the playoffs. We here at Mibble preview central don't see much reason to be bullish on 2024 but we were taught a lesson last year about underestimating.
Arrow Up/Down: Down. A surprise playoff run last year seems unrepeatable in an improved AL West. The Astros don't have much cap space available now or coming off the books in 2024 and don't have a lot of impact talent imminent to the majors, so there may be a small rebuild in the Astros future. If past performance is any indicator of the future, the rebuild will be quick and the big league roster will be ready to compete again in short order, but I would probably not pencil them in for a playoff spot again this year (to be repeated in next years preview in which I yet again apologize for underestimating them in 2024).
Los Angeles Angels
'23 Finish: 83-89-8, 3rd in AL West; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 3rd in AL West
Offseason Acquisition: OF Chase DeLauter. The 2022 16th overall pick out of James Madison lit up the minors in 2023, lit up the AFL after that and has continued to light up MLB spring training in 2024. The power has been more of the 2B variety than HR so far as a pro but I think there is more over-the-fence to come from Chase and if he can do it without sacrificing too much on the OBP front he could be a serious asset in short order. Esteury Ruiz was the price to acquire him and., while prospects are always a gamble, the upside seems to be worth it almost immediately as DeLauter may surpass him quickly in big league production.
Breakout/Sleeper: SP Mike Soroka. Remember Mike Soroka? The once upon a time inheritor of the mantle of Braves Ace has landed in Chicago as a roster casualty as he looks to reestablish himself as an impact pitcher. He made it back to make 17 AAA starts last year with an 3.41 ERA but wasn't able to show the Braves enough at the MLB level to hold a 40 man roster spot all offseason. He has looked pretty sharp in spring training with 12 Ks and 4 BBs over 9 IP and looks to have a long leash with his new team to get himself reestablished. Soroka was my pick in this spot for the Halos last year, and it looks like I might have just been a year too early.
State of the Farm: Thin. This is another team that suffers from not getting much support from the parent club in terms of drafting and developing as the IRL Angels have had farm systems near the bottom of the rankings for years. Some of the bigger names the Halos have managed to get into their system have been dealt away in the Mibble in order to bolster the big league club. Despite all of that however, the Angels have brought in the aforementioned Chase DeLauter and SP Max Meyer which is not a bad headlining group for any system. Both are high impact guys with lofty ceilings and, if Meyers injury is fully healed, not too far away from being in the big leagues either.
Biggest Question Mark: Depth. This is a pretty solid lineup but the suspension to Noelvi Marte and season ending injury to Sandy Alcantara hurt immensely to a team without many bench options and lacking a farm system to deal from to get replacements. There just isn't enough here on the roster to weather the kinds of injuries that happen over the course of a season.
Arrow Up/Down: Down for 2024. Losing two of your better players before the season even starts hurts and it is hard to see the Angels finishing 2024 as well as they did in '23. I don't think they will be down for long as they have a good amount of young talent, are in a good position from a salary cap perspective with $7.0 in space currently and Ozzie Albies massive contract coming off the books after this season so he can be resigned to a much lower deal next year with the discount. Add in a development year for Meyer and DeLauter as well as the #8 pick in the draft being added to the farm system and I think this team could look much better heading into 2025.
Seattle Mariners
'23 Finish: 81-90-9, 4th in AL West; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 2nd in AL West
Offseason Acquisition: 2B Ketel Marte. Picked up in a nearly cap neutral trade for Royals prospect Javier Vaz, takes a lot of pressure off of a team that had picked up Keston Hiura to be their 2B earlier in the offseason. In his age 29 season last year Marte managed 25 HR and scored 96 R while hitting .276, good enough to make him the #8 2B on the player rater last season. It's a pretty low risk deal for the M's as the contract expires after this year so if father time starts to come after Marte this season they won't be on the hook for paying him too long.
Breakout/Sleeper: OF Alec Burleson. After picking Burleson in the second round of the shortened 2020 draft, the Cardinals were aggressive in assigning Burleson through the system, Reaching AAA in his first pro season the following year. In 2022, he started the year at AAA again, but made his debut in St. Louis with a 5.35 OPS over 48 ABs in the bigs. Burleson managed to hang in the majors all of 2023 but was 11% below average per WRC+, a bit of a disappointment given the numbers he had amassed in the minors the previous years. Even with those slightly sub par results, there is reason to hope with a 13% K rate and nearly 7% walk rate better results could be ahead.
State of the Farm: Young. The top prospects from the home team are high ceiling, but still teenagers. Felnin Celestin and Lazaro Montes are 18 and 19 respectively and while both could end up impact players it will likely be a few more years before they are ready. Cardinals SP Tink Hence is the top name from outside the system and is much closer to the majors having made it to AA last season. He will likely start there again to begin 2024 but could see some action late in the year if everything goes well. There is some reliever risk with him, but even then the floor is pretty high and there’s no reason not to run him out there as a SP for now to see if he can hack it.
Biggest Question Mark: OF. Julio Rodriguez is a superstar fantasy asset in CF but the corners and UTIL spot are far more questionable in Seattle. Our pick for breakout possibility Alec Burleson is slated to start in LF but I would feel better about the teams chances if there was more backing him up in case that breakout doesn't come. Hunter Renfroe and his 91 OPS+ from 2023 and 37 year old Charlie Blackmon are the other options for these spots. Maybe everything clicks together for these guys and they all perform at peak levels, but I would expect at least 1 or 2 of them to struggle.
Arrow Up/Down: Up? I kind of have a feeling that this is the team I am going to be most wrong about. There are some definite things to like, the bullpen has some great options but lacks a little depth, the rotation has great cost-controlled pitchers but could really use a #1 or #2 to head it, there are players in the lineup, Henry Davis or Amed Rosario, that I am not a huge fan of from a fantasy perspective but I am often wrong about guys like that. Overall, there is a base here to work with and a bit of flexibility to make some changes, I will predict a slight move up the standings this year.
Texas Rangers
'23 Finish: 118-51-11, 1st in AL West; lost in ALDS
'24 Prediction: 1st in AL West
Offseason Acquisition: Pretty much a whole bullpen. The Rangers signaled a philosophy shift early in the offseason by trading for Jordan Roman, Yimi Garcia, and Caleb Ferguson in trades, while dealing away many of their SP. This was only accelerated when free agency rolled around as they then proceeded to sign two of the top RP names available in Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz. With SP going shorter and shorter stints all the time and Ws coming a bit less reliably from this group, this shoot-the-moon strategy may pay off with the quality and quantity of relievers they have been able to add. You have to expect that SV/HD will be wrapped up for the Rangers most matchups and, barring any blow ups that overly affect a small IP sample, the ratios will be tough to beat as well but it remains to be seen how often W and K categories will come back to bite them. Interesting thing to watch for sure.
Breakout/Sleeper: SS Oneil Cruz. An absolute toolshed who was certainly not under the radar last season, Cruz didn't exactly meet expectations in the early goings of his career posting a .751 OPS across his first 98 big league games. His season was cut short after a gnarly leg fracture that caused him to miss the rest of the 2023 season and made many worry if he would ever fully recover to the level of athleticism he showed prior to the injury. He seems to be putting those fears to bed in spring training already crushing 7 HR while hitting .355 and narrowing the gap between BB and K. Spring training stats are notoriously meaningless but for a player like Cruz who needed to show he is fully healthy, it is a big green flag for a huge season in 2024. Honorable mention to Sal Frelick, an OBP machine with limited power currently trying to crack an everyday job in Milwaukee.
State of the Farm: Wyatt Langford. Does it matter what other names there are? Overall the system has some good prospects even after promoting a few to the big league roster and the Rangers usual tendency to be very active in the trade market, but Langford remains to headline. The rich got richer in the 2023 draft with Langford going to the Rangers at #4 overall and he immediately marked himself as one of the two or three best prospects in baseball and made it obvious he would be in Arlington sooner than later. Going from RK ball to AAA in his first pro season, with a 1.157 combined OPS across all stops. Xavier Isaac, Chase Hampton, and Tekoah Roby were all added from other organizations recently and offer significant upside as well.
Biggest Question Mark: Starting pitching. As mentioned in the offseason acquisition part of this preview, the lack of true SP on the team seems to be a feature, not a bug of this teams roster construction. I can't recall a time that a team with aims as high as the Rangers has gone so all-in on this strategy so it is a bit of uncharted territory. The relievers here are high K and there some multi-inning pitchers here so it isn't as if there will just be open spots in the lineup most days, I would be worried that a few injuries or poorly timed bad outings from those closers could hurt. Will every team be rushing to emulate this strategy next year? Or will the Rangers be scrambling to trade away prospects for SP as the trade deadline draws near?
Arrow Up/Down: Up. A disappointing playoff exit after an AL leading 118 W and a first round bye last year leave a little room for advancement for a team whose playoff dominance is rivaled only by the Rays in Mibble history. A solid core of Arb players, some FA and some prospects on the way make for a nice roster balance with lots of flexibility. The high dollar contracts are generally good and movable if need be, excepting possibly the recently signed relievers, and the higher end prospects are close to being MLB ready so there are options for either cheap replacements to the roster or trade fodder to rebuild on the fly. This team should continue to make the playoffs in an impressive run of competitiveness and could end up the Mibble’s first repeat champion.
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NL WEST
Los Angeles Dodgers
'23 Finish: 39-130-11, 5th in division; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 5th in division
Offseason Acquisition: Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto joined the Dodgers pitching staff this winter. In his seven years in NPB, The Beast of the Pacific racked up a tidy 1.82 ERA and 0.935 WHIP, striking out 922 batters over 897 innings and completing eight shutouts. His presence in 2024 is a nice add especially while deGrom begins the year on the shelf. If expectations are fulfilled, he will be the long-term ace of a staff including several other budding MLB arms.
Breakout/Sleeper: Cole Ragans is a popular name on the pitching side, though one could argue he was already mid-breakout last fall. So instead we will go with IF Michael Busch. Traded over the offseason IRL to Wrigleyville, Busch should get plenty of opportunity for the Cubbies that just was not available on a loaded IRL Dodgers super squad. A lifetime .283/.390/.529 hitter with 79 HR over 357 games, Busch got about a month’s worth of time in 2023 in The Show with little to show for it. Expect him to translate his minor league success and top prospect pedigree in 2024. Also keep an eye on Deivi Garcia in a wide-open ChiSox bullpen after an impressive showing in spring training.
State of the Farm: As we wrote here last spring, the system remains loaded – even with recent and impending graduations to the majors. Over 100 non-Dodgers prospects are again on the payroll, including the likes of Jeferson Quero, Colt Emerson, Colson Montgomery, Dyan Jorge, Cam Collier, and Mason Montgomery. On the Dodgers side of the farm, many reinforcements are on the way including Diego Cartaya, Dalton Rushing, Andy Pages, and Josue De Paula. Give this system two more years and the NL West might have their hands full.
Biggest Question Mark: Filling out the lineup card remains an issue. Last year we wrote about Franco, deGrom, and Vargas being the main contributors; those guys are potentially done forever, on yearlong injury recovery, and in the minors to start this year. The pitching staff will have to carry the load for the Dodgers for much of 2024.
Arrow Up/Down: Cautiously upward. Plenty of young pieces to build around and retained cap flexibility with eyes on 2025 and beyond. Put the over/under on wins around 50.
Arizona Diamondbacks
'23 Finish: 74-96-10, 4th in division; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 4th in division
Offseason Acquisition: After a solid showing in the 2023 consolation bracket, the primary moves by the Arizona front office were on the trade market instead of free agency. The most notable new Dback is catcher Will Smith, who just signed a decade long extension with the Dodgers IRL. Why is that important? Outside of a continued decline in the slugging department over several years, Smith has been a remarkably consistent hitter around .260 with 20-25 HR as the primary catcher over that same timespan. Turning 29 on Opening Day, he is set up to be surrounded by a loaded Dodgers lineup for years to come, which should only serve to cushion his statline.
Breakout/Sleeper: Since half of his 122 MLB AB came in October, we will highlight OF Evan Carter here. Speaking of loaded lineups, Carter is part of one in Texas with the defending MLB champs. Incredibly Carter put together a 1.6-WAR debut in 23 games before continuing to shine in the postseason. If you were asleep in September or October last year, you will get pretty familiar with Carter in 2024.
State of the Farm: Solid to slightly above average. In addition to top prospects highlighted last spring in Jordan Lawlar, Brandon Pfaadt, and Druw Jones, top 100 prospects Tommy Troy and Jacob Misiorowski lead the system. Overall Mo has the organization moving in the right direction since taking over a couple of years ago.
Biggest Question Mark: While the lineup clearly continues to improve, the pitching staff is full of question marks largely due to injuries (including trade acquisition Eduardo Rodriguez) and youth. In good news they have a long list of arms, so the math says some amount of the question marks will prove to be favorable.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. For the second straight year, the Opening Day roster on paper is an improvement over the prior Opening Day version. There is a good chance they are being underestimated with a projected repeat 4th-place finish. Sniffing .500 is perfectly within reason in 2024.
San Francisco Giants
'23 Finish: 88-81-11, 2nd in division; lost in Wild Card round
'24 Prediction: 3rd in division
Offseason Acquisition: It is great when personal favorites marry up nicely with the most obvious answer. The Grandson of the Wind, Jung Hoo Lee, arrived this offseason from the KBO where he most recently starred for the Kiwoom Heroes. A .340/.407/.491 lifetime hitter, Lee shows a fantastic eye at the plate with a 2:1 BB:K ratio over the past three seasons. The spring training buzz has been palpable, even despite coming off an injury-shortened campaign after fracturing his ankle.
Breakout/Sleeper: Though the Mibble Giants could use hitting more than pitching, Kyle Harrison is about to provide a big boost in the K department. Harrison should open the season in the San Fran rotation. IRL he will not need to lead the staff, which has two of the best starters in baseball (Snell and Webb) – so that should help manage pressure and expectations. The 22-year-old Harrison averaged more than 14 K/9 every year in the minors, with the main questions being around his ability to limit walks and go deeper in games. The Mibble Giants do not need amazing out of him this year, but there is a chance we will start seeing it.
State of the Farm: Would say the system is down vs a year ago in part due to graduations, but also due to lack of high-end reinforcements ahead. It feels like this is going to come to a head soon, especially offensively where there are a lot of bench pieces at the MLB level but not much in the way of studs.
Biggest Question Mark: If you did not glean it above – the offense. Lee is a clear upgrade in the outfield and should help especially in runs and BA. The infield however is full of guys with replacement level history. The Mibble Giants would benefit from a long-awaited bounceback campaign from Anthony Rendon or a breakout year from Luis Garcia Jr.
Arrow Up/Down: Gradually down. Two years ago the Giants were the division winners; last year they slid down to a wild card spot. The Dbacks and Padres both improved this winter and have ample reasons for optimism within their rosters. The Giants could still be a .500 ballclub in 2024, but they need a few things to break their way offensively to extend their back-to-back playoff appearances to a streak.
San Diego Padres
'23 Finish: 82-86-12, 3rd in division; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 2nd in division
Offseason Acquisition: The major league roster is virtually unrecognizable compared to the end of the 2023 season, and the list of juicy names around holdovers Fernando Tatis Jr. and Dylan Cease is lengthy, to say the least. There is perennial Home Run Derby champion Pete Alonso at first, up-and-coming catcher Gabriel Moreno, the signing of Blake Snell – I could go on and on. Perhaps even more significant than those moves were the Mibble trades that brought home the trio of IRL Padres star infielders (Kim, Machado, and Bogaerts) and the IRL trade that brought Dylan Cease to San Diego – effectively taking him off the Mibble trade market with free agency only months ahead.
Breakout/Sleeper: Going with Yuki Matsui here. The Mibble Padres bullpen is not exactly deep beyond Robert Suarez, but the offseason signing of Matsui IRL by the Padres could provide a strong high-leverage option. Matsui has six seasons with 30+ saves in the past decade in NPB. He only threw three innings this spring, but he retired eight of those nine outs via the K.
State of the Farm: The farm is not super lengthy, but plenty of Mibble teams would love to have it even after the past few months of wheeling and dealing since new management took over. Ethan Salas has been gushed about for maturity and talent beyond his years, while James Wood had a pretty good spring training. Other top 100 names include Kevin Alcantara, Leo De Vries, and Dylan Lesko.
Biggest Question Mark: Major league depth. The quality level at most positions will make the Padres a contender for the NL West crown this summer, assuming health. The offensive bench is minimal, and they could probably use a couple more relievers.
Arrow Up/Down: Undoubtedly up. Most fellow Mibble GMs would sell their souls to have a roster that looked like this, especially with multiple stars lined up for potential 30% HTD over the next few winters. On paper this looks like a 100-win club, which should mean a playoff spot for a franchise that reached the postseason 2017-2021 (including four straight division titles) before falling short the past two years. The outlook beyond 2024 looks good as well.
Colorado Rockies
'23 Finish: 131-39-10, 1st in division; lost in NLCS
'24 Prediction: 1st in division
Offseason Acquisition: For the most part the Rockies roster is largely the same as it was in the NLCS in September. The most notable acquisition is probably Aaron Nola, who has been a beacon of general durability for a long time. Nola mainly helps offset the departure of fellow IRL Phillie Zack Wheeler in free agency. Offensively there are a couple of new faces in the outfield (Laureano and Benintendi) who probably will not blow anyone’s socks off, especially compared to the departed Xander Bogaerts.
Breakout/Sleeper: Going to stick with my prediction from last year and expect a sophomore breakout from homegrown Ezequiel Tovar. A consensus top-25 prospect a year ago, Tovar signed a contract extension IRL with Colorado earlier this week and should hold a starting role at short for years to come. As written here before, he only spent five games at AAA before debuting in the majors at 21 years old. A .253/.287/.408 slash for a rookie defensive wizard is perfectly passable, especially given the aggressive advancement through AA and AAA to MLB the prior year. As a comp, imagine Geraldo Perdomo’s trajectory over the past three years – but with more thump and the Mile High environment. Shortstop across the bigs has tons of talent, but don’t be surprised if Tovar is in the All-Star conversation before long (someone from Colorado has to go anyway).
State of the Farm: Poor-ish. The Mibble Colorado system is limited compared to most of its peers, though there are a few promising prospects especially in the outfield (Yanquiel Fernandez, Zac Veen, Brock Jones). But the Mibble window in the NL West is still there for 2024 and possibly 2025, so maybe that will buy some draft and development time.
Biggest Question Mark: Can the Rockies replicate their 2023 success? Overall this is still a pretty good team, but the division is getting stronger; holding the line or close to it probably will not mean 131 wins again. Health and some performance improvement (Tovar and Eloy Jimenez, among others) will determine their 2024 fate.
Arrow Up/Down: Neutral. Candidly thought the 2023 Rockies would win division but be closer to the 87-win 2022 performance. Expect some regression, but they remain the division favorites.
With 2024 Opening Day upon us (!!!), Washington Nationals GM (Alex) and I take you from coast to coast to break down all 30 Mibble teams, division by division. Then we'll wrap up with playoff predictions. Best of 3 for the Braves and Royals in September ensuring the first two-time Mibble world champions? Who missed the playoffs in 2023 but is poised to get there in 2024? Is your farm system less than adequate (still, somehow)?
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AL WEST
Oakland Athletics
'23 Finish: 30-139-11, 5th in AL West; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 5th in AL West
Offseason Acquisition: Giancarlo Stanton / Michael Stefanic. Stanton and his huge power swing moved to Oakland (Vegas?) in what was mostly a salary dump as his age (now 34), injury history (strained hamstring last year), and depleted production (last year was the first season of his career with a sub 100 WRC+) all amounted to his $7.4 salary being unpalatable. Stanton has been putting up much better contact numbers in spring training this year so there is some hope that he can raise the contact level back to something acceptable to pair with the power that never left to make him a better than average hitter again and a useful trade chip for the A's as the Mibble season progresses. In the same deal they also picked up 2B Michael Stefanic, a now 28 year old who was never much of a prospect but has put up some pretty intriguing numbers in the minor leagues, hopes aren’t that high but a bench role or the short side of a platoon is possible and getting a possible contributor and a decent shot at a trade chip is a solid deal for a salary dump.
Breakout/Sleeper: 1B Juan Yepez. For years Yepez tantalized Cardinals fans with his offensive production in the minors but his defensive limitations kept him from getting an extended look in St. Louis. Yepez signed a FA deal with the Nationals early in the offseason looking to get a chance to hit every day. The Nats’ signing of Joey Gallo put a damper on his quest, but with a quick start in AAA this year he could surpass Gallo or Joey Meneses for 1B/DH ABs in the nation’s capital where his power bat would be a welcome addition to a fairly anemic lineup.
State of the Farm: Improving. 2023 added two high upside prospects to the system, SS Jacob Wilson via the 6th overall pick in the draft and P Luis Morales via the international signing system. Tampa Bay SS Carson Williams and a pair of quality hitting backstops in Quero and Ford offer something to dream on as well. The A's will be picking 4th in this year’s draft which should add another high level prospect and the Mibble A's have shown a willingness to deal MLB talent for prospects so I expect this rapidly improving farm system to look even better next year.
Biggest Question Mark: How full will the lineup be? A rebuilding team like the A's tend to sell off assets as soon as they get playing time and do something with it, so it tends to create lineup holes. The good news is the IRL A's are so cheap they will have their own lineup holes that they will fill from within their own system so the Mibble A's may benefit from a less highly thought of prospect getting playing time with the big club that he might not get elsewhere; teams like this tend to have useful parts pop up out of nowhere.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. The prospect base here is good and getting gooder, there is some cap space to facilitate trades and more on the way after some contracts expire this season. The rebuild is fully underway and progressing nicely, with some of the prospects added the turnaround might happen faster than thought possible with the roster management inherited.
Houston Astros
'23 Finish: 100-74-6, 2nd in AL West; lost in Wild Card round
'24 Prediction: 4th in AL West
Offseason Acquisition: SP Cooper Hjerpe. The Astros were involved in the bidding for a lot of free agents, but were unable to sign anyone to the kind of bargain contract they were shopping for. So, the biggest offseason acquisition had to come from the trade market and they landed a good chip in Hjerpe. Houston was able to ship out the newly acquired Kevin Ginkel in exchange for some immediate OF help in Trent Grisham and a very solid P prospect in Cooper Hjerpe. A Golden Spikes finalist at Oregon State led to Hjerpe being selected 22nd overall in 2022 and posting a quite solid debut season in A+ ball in 2023. Look for him spend most of '24 in AA and if he can manage similar results to be up with the big club not long after. This is a nice acquisition for an Astros team in need of a young talent infusion.
Breakout/Sleeper: UTIL Joey Loperfido. a 7th round pick out of Duke in 2021, Loperfido worked his way up to 6th on the Astros top prospects list after a 2023 that saw him climb all the way from A+ ball to AAA while smacking a combined .880 OPS across 3 levels. The 'Stros are moving him around the diamond in an attempt to get his bat into the lineup playing him at 1B, 2B, and all three OF positions. He probably doesn’t have the power to profile at 1B, and 2B is likely blocked by Jose Altuve’s contract extension so OF is probably his best path to the majors. Loperfido sees a lot of pitches as both his K and BB rates are high similar to Twins 2B Edouard Julien and he has a similar profile as a ow-medium, AVG, high OBP, decent power option without a real defensive home. Look for him to debut this year after a strong spring training and provide some value to the Mibble Astros.
State of the Farm: Domestic, not exotic. The Astros management has long shown a preference for hanging on to homegrown players and it shows in the farm system as they have managed to hold on to most of their top prospects. Jacob Melton, Luis Baez, and Spencer Arrighetti headline the class from within the organization. Billy Wagner's kid Will is an intriguing prospect at 3B and a fun follow for nostalgia purposes. From outside the Org, former top prospect Corbin Martin is still hanging around and Antoine Kelly looks to move faster now that he has moved to the pen full time. Not bad overall, but lacking a little depth beyond the top few names.
Biggest Question Mark: Can they make the playoffs again? After last years season preview picked the 'Stros to finish 4th in the division and miss the playoffs by a wide margin, they made us here at the Mibble season preview team look foolish by logging 100 W and making the playoffs. We here at Mibble preview central don't see much reason to be bullish on 2024 but we were taught a lesson last year about underestimating.
Arrow Up/Down: Down. A surprise playoff run last year seems unrepeatable in an improved AL West. The Astros don't have much cap space available now or coming off the books in 2024 and don't have a lot of impact talent imminent to the majors, so there may be a small rebuild in the Astros future. If past performance is any indicator of the future, the rebuild will be quick and the big league roster will be ready to compete again in short order, but I would probably not pencil them in for a playoff spot again this year (to be repeated in next years preview in which I yet again apologize for underestimating them in 2024).
Los Angeles Angels
'23 Finish: 83-89-8, 3rd in AL West; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 3rd in AL West
Offseason Acquisition: OF Chase DeLauter. The 2022 16th overall pick out of James Madison lit up the minors in 2023, lit up the AFL after that and has continued to light up MLB spring training in 2024. The power has been more of the 2B variety than HR so far as a pro but I think there is more over-the-fence to come from Chase and if he can do it without sacrificing too much on the OBP front he could be a serious asset in short order. Esteury Ruiz was the price to acquire him and., while prospects are always a gamble, the upside seems to be worth it almost immediately as DeLauter may surpass him quickly in big league production.
Breakout/Sleeper: SP Mike Soroka. Remember Mike Soroka? The once upon a time inheritor of the mantle of Braves Ace has landed in Chicago as a roster casualty as he looks to reestablish himself as an impact pitcher. He made it back to make 17 AAA starts last year with an 3.41 ERA but wasn't able to show the Braves enough at the MLB level to hold a 40 man roster spot all offseason. He has looked pretty sharp in spring training with 12 Ks and 4 BBs over 9 IP and looks to have a long leash with his new team to get himself reestablished. Soroka was my pick in this spot for the Halos last year, and it looks like I might have just been a year too early.
State of the Farm: Thin. This is another team that suffers from not getting much support from the parent club in terms of drafting and developing as the IRL Angels have had farm systems near the bottom of the rankings for years. Some of the bigger names the Halos have managed to get into their system have been dealt away in the Mibble in order to bolster the big league club. Despite all of that however, the Angels have brought in the aforementioned Chase DeLauter and SP Max Meyer which is not a bad headlining group for any system. Both are high impact guys with lofty ceilings and, if Meyers injury is fully healed, not too far away from being in the big leagues either.
Biggest Question Mark: Depth. This is a pretty solid lineup but the suspension to Noelvi Marte and season ending injury to Sandy Alcantara hurt immensely to a team without many bench options and lacking a farm system to deal from to get replacements. There just isn't enough here on the roster to weather the kinds of injuries that happen over the course of a season.
Arrow Up/Down: Down for 2024. Losing two of your better players before the season even starts hurts and it is hard to see the Angels finishing 2024 as well as they did in '23. I don't think they will be down for long as they have a good amount of young talent, are in a good position from a salary cap perspective with $7.0 in space currently and Ozzie Albies massive contract coming off the books after this season so he can be resigned to a much lower deal next year with the discount. Add in a development year for Meyer and DeLauter as well as the #8 pick in the draft being added to the farm system and I think this team could look much better heading into 2025.
Seattle Mariners
'23 Finish: 81-90-9, 4th in AL West; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 2nd in AL West
Offseason Acquisition: 2B Ketel Marte. Picked up in a nearly cap neutral trade for Royals prospect Javier Vaz, takes a lot of pressure off of a team that had picked up Keston Hiura to be their 2B earlier in the offseason. In his age 29 season last year Marte managed 25 HR and scored 96 R while hitting .276, good enough to make him the #8 2B on the player rater last season. It's a pretty low risk deal for the M's as the contract expires after this year so if father time starts to come after Marte this season they won't be on the hook for paying him too long.
Breakout/Sleeper: OF Alec Burleson. After picking Burleson in the second round of the shortened 2020 draft, the Cardinals were aggressive in assigning Burleson through the system, Reaching AAA in his first pro season the following year. In 2022, he started the year at AAA again, but made his debut in St. Louis with a 5.35 OPS over 48 ABs in the bigs. Burleson managed to hang in the majors all of 2023 but was 11% below average per WRC+, a bit of a disappointment given the numbers he had amassed in the minors the previous years. Even with those slightly sub par results, there is reason to hope with a 13% K rate and nearly 7% walk rate better results could be ahead.
State of the Farm: Young. The top prospects from the home team are high ceiling, but still teenagers. Felnin Celestin and Lazaro Montes are 18 and 19 respectively and while both could end up impact players it will likely be a few more years before they are ready. Cardinals SP Tink Hence is the top name from outside the system and is much closer to the majors having made it to AA last season. He will likely start there again to begin 2024 but could see some action late in the year if everything goes well. There is some reliever risk with him, but even then the floor is pretty high and there’s no reason not to run him out there as a SP for now to see if he can hack it.
Biggest Question Mark: OF. Julio Rodriguez is a superstar fantasy asset in CF but the corners and UTIL spot are far more questionable in Seattle. Our pick for breakout possibility Alec Burleson is slated to start in LF but I would feel better about the teams chances if there was more backing him up in case that breakout doesn't come. Hunter Renfroe and his 91 OPS+ from 2023 and 37 year old Charlie Blackmon are the other options for these spots. Maybe everything clicks together for these guys and they all perform at peak levels, but I would expect at least 1 or 2 of them to struggle.
Arrow Up/Down: Up? I kind of have a feeling that this is the team I am going to be most wrong about. There are some definite things to like, the bullpen has some great options but lacks a little depth, the rotation has great cost-controlled pitchers but could really use a #1 or #2 to head it, there are players in the lineup, Henry Davis or Amed Rosario, that I am not a huge fan of from a fantasy perspective but I am often wrong about guys like that. Overall, there is a base here to work with and a bit of flexibility to make some changes, I will predict a slight move up the standings this year.
Texas Rangers
'23 Finish: 118-51-11, 1st in AL West; lost in ALDS
'24 Prediction: 1st in AL West
Offseason Acquisition: Pretty much a whole bullpen. The Rangers signaled a philosophy shift early in the offseason by trading for Jordan Roman, Yimi Garcia, and Caleb Ferguson in trades, while dealing away many of their SP. This was only accelerated when free agency rolled around as they then proceeded to sign two of the top RP names available in Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz. With SP going shorter and shorter stints all the time and Ws coming a bit less reliably from this group, this shoot-the-moon strategy may pay off with the quality and quantity of relievers they have been able to add. You have to expect that SV/HD will be wrapped up for the Rangers most matchups and, barring any blow ups that overly affect a small IP sample, the ratios will be tough to beat as well but it remains to be seen how often W and K categories will come back to bite them. Interesting thing to watch for sure.
Breakout/Sleeper: SS Oneil Cruz. An absolute toolshed who was certainly not under the radar last season, Cruz didn't exactly meet expectations in the early goings of his career posting a .751 OPS across his first 98 big league games. His season was cut short after a gnarly leg fracture that caused him to miss the rest of the 2023 season and made many worry if he would ever fully recover to the level of athleticism he showed prior to the injury. He seems to be putting those fears to bed in spring training already crushing 7 HR while hitting .355 and narrowing the gap between BB and K. Spring training stats are notoriously meaningless but for a player like Cruz who needed to show he is fully healthy, it is a big green flag for a huge season in 2024. Honorable mention to Sal Frelick, an OBP machine with limited power currently trying to crack an everyday job in Milwaukee.
State of the Farm: Wyatt Langford. Does it matter what other names there are? Overall the system has some good prospects even after promoting a few to the big league roster and the Rangers usual tendency to be very active in the trade market, but Langford remains to headline. The rich got richer in the 2023 draft with Langford going to the Rangers at #4 overall and he immediately marked himself as one of the two or three best prospects in baseball and made it obvious he would be in Arlington sooner than later. Going from RK ball to AAA in his first pro season, with a 1.157 combined OPS across all stops. Xavier Isaac, Chase Hampton, and Tekoah Roby were all added from other organizations recently and offer significant upside as well.
Biggest Question Mark: Starting pitching. As mentioned in the offseason acquisition part of this preview, the lack of true SP on the team seems to be a feature, not a bug of this teams roster construction. I can't recall a time that a team with aims as high as the Rangers has gone so all-in on this strategy so it is a bit of uncharted territory. The relievers here are high K and there some multi-inning pitchers here so it isn't as if there will just be open spots in the lineup most days, I would be worried that a few injuries or poorly timed bad outings from those closers could hurt. Will every team be rushing to emulate this strategy next year? Or will the Rangers be scrambling to trade away prospects for SP as the trade deadline draws near?
Arrow Up/Down: Up. A disappointing playoff exit after an AL leading 118 W and a first round bye last year leave a little room for advancement for a team whose playoff dominance is rivaled only by the Rays in Mibble history. A solid core of Arb players, some FA and some prospects on the way make for a nice roster balance with lots of flexibility. The high dollar contracts are generally good and movable if need be, excepting possibly the recently signed relievers, and the higher end prospects are close to being MLB ready so there are options for either cheap replacements to the roster or trade fodder to rebuild on the fly. This team should continue to make the playoffs in an impressive run of competitiveness and could end up the Mibble’s first repeat champion.
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NL WEST
Los Angeles Dodgers
'23 Finish: 39-130-11, 5th in division; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 5th in division
Offseason Acquisition: Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto joined the Dodgers pitching staff this winter. In his seven years in NPB, The Beast of the Pacific racked up a tidy 1.82 ERA and 0.935 WHIP, striking out 922 batters over 897 innings and completing eight shutouts. His presence in 2024 is a nice add especially while deGrom begins the year on the shelf. If expectations are fulfilled, he will be the long-term ace of a staff including several other budding MLB arms.
Breakout/Sleeper: Cole Ragans is a popular name on the pitching side, though one could argue he was already mid-breakout last fall. So instead we will go with IF Michael Busch. Traded over the offseason IRL to Wrigleyville, Busch should get plenty of opportunity for the Cubbies that just was not available on a loaded IRL Dodgers super squad. A lifetime .283/.390/.529 hitter with 79 HR over 357 games, Busch got about a month’s worth of time in 2023 in The Show with little to show for it. Expect him to translate his minor league success and top prospect pedigree in 2024. Also keep an eye on Deivi Garcia in a wide-open ChiSox bullpen after an impressive showing in spring training.
State of the Farm: As we wrote here last spring, the system remains loaded – even with recent and impending graduations to the majors. Over 100 non-Dodgers prospects are again on the payroll, including the likes of Jeferson Quero, Colt Emerson, Colson Montgomery, Dyan Jorge, Cam Collier, and Mason Montgomery. On the Dodgers side of the farm, many reinforcements are on the way including Diego Cartaya, Dalton Rushing, Andy Pages, and Josue De Paula. Give this system two more years and the NL West might have their hands full.
Biggest Question Mark: Filling out the lineup card remains an issue. Last year we wrote about Franco, deGrom, and Vargas being the main contributors; those guys are potentially done forever, on yearlong injury recovery, and in the minors to start this year. The pitching staff will have to carry the load for the Dodgers for much of 2024.
Arrow Up/Down: Cautiously upward. Plenty of young pieces to build around and retained cap flexibility with eyes on 2025 and beyond. Put the over/under on wins around 50.
Arizona Diamondbacks
'23 Finish: 74-96-10, 4th in division; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 4th in division
Offseason Acquisition: After a solid showing in the 2023 consolation bracket, the primary moves by the Arizona front office were on the trade market instead of free agency. The most notable new Dback is catcher Will Smith, who just signed a decade long extension with the Dodgers IRL. Why is that important? Outside of a continued decline in the slugging department over several years, Smith has been a remarkably consistent hitter around .260 with 20-25 HR as the primary catcher over that same timespan. Turning 29 on Opening Day, he is set up to be surrounded by a loaded Dodgers lineup for years to come, which should only serve to cushion his statline.
Breakout/Sleeper: Since half of his 122 MLB AB came in October, we will highlight OF Evan Carter here. Speaking of loaded lineups, Carter is part of one in Texas with the defending MLB champs. Incredibly Carter put together a 1.6-WAR debut in 23 games before continuing to shine in the postseason. If you were asleep in September or October last year, you will get pretty familiar with Carter in 2024.
State of the Farm: Solid to slightly above average. In addition to top prospects highlighted last spring in Jordan Lawlar, Brandon Pfaadt, and Druw Jones, top 100 prospects Tommy Troy and Jacob Misiorowski lead the system. Overall Mo has the organization moving in the right direction since taking over a couple of years ago.
Biggest Question Mark: While the lineup clearly continues to improve, the pitching staff is full of question marks largely due to injuries (including trade acquisition Eduardo Rodriguez) and youth. In good news they have a long list of arms, so the math says some amount of the question marks will prove to be favorable.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. For the second straight year, the Opening Day roster on paper is an improvement over the prior Opening Day version. There is a good chance they are being underestimated with a projected repeat 4th-place finish. Sniffing .500 is perfectly within reason in 2024.
San Francisco Giants
'23 Finish: 88-81-11, 2nd in division; lost in Wild Card round
'24 Prediction: 3rd in division
Offseason Acquisition: It is great when personal favorites marry up nicely with the most obvious answer. The Grandson of the Wind, Jung Hoo Lee, arrived this offseason from the KBO where he most recently starred for the Kiwoom Heroes. A .340/.407/.491 lifetime hitter, Lee shows a fantastic eye at the plate with a 2:1 BB:K ratio over the past three seasons. The spring training buzz has been palpable, even despite coming off an injury-shortened campaign after fracturing his ankle.
Breakout/Sleeper: Though the Mibble Giants could use hitting more than pitching, Kyle Harrison is about to provide a big boost in the K department. Harrison should open the season in the San Fran rotation. IRL he will not need to lead the staff, which has two of the best starters in baseball (Snell and Webb) – so that should help manage pressure and expectations. The 22-year-old Harrison averaged more than 14 K/9 every year in the minors, with the main questions being around his ability to limit walks and go deeper in games. The Mibble Giants do not need amazing out of him this year, but there is a chance we will start seeing it.
State of the Farm: Would say the system is down vs a year ago in part due to graduations, but also due to lack of high-end reinforcements ahead. It feels like this is going to come to a head soon, especially offensively where there are a lot of bench pieces at the MLB level but not much in the way of studs.
Biggest Question Mark: If you did not glean it above – the offense. Lee is a clear upgrade in the outfield and should help especially in runs and BA. The infield however is full of guys with replacement level history. The Mibble Giants would benefit from a long-awaited bounceback campaign from Anthony Rendon or a breakout year from Luis Garcia Jr.
Arrow Up/Down: Gradually down. Two years ago the Giants were the division winners; last year they slid down to a wild card spot. The Dbacks and Padres both improved this winter and have ample reasons for optimism within their rosters. The Giants could still be a .500 ballclub in 2024, but they need a few things to break their way offensively to extend their back-to-back playoff appearances to a streak.
San Diego Padres
'23 Finish: 82-86-12, 3rd in division; missed playoffs
'24 Prediction: 2nd in division
Offseason Acquisition: The major league roster is virtually unrecognizable compared to the end of the 2023 season, and the list of juicy names around holdovers Fernando Tatis Jr. and Dylan Cease is lengthy, to say the least. There is perennial Home Run Derby champion Pete Alonso at first, up-and-coming catcher Gabriel Moreno, the signing of Blake Snell – I could go on and on. Perhaps even more significant than those moves were the Mibble trades that brought home the trio of IRL Padres star infielders (Kim, Machado, and Bogaerts) and the IRL trade that brought Dylan Cease to San Diego – effectively taking him off the Mibble trade market with free agency only months ahead.
Breakout/Sleeper: Going with Yuki Matsui here. The Mibble Padres bullpen is not exactly deep beyond Robert Suarez, but the offseason signing of Matsui IRL by the Padres could provide a strong high-leverage option. Matsui has six seasons with 30+ saves in the past decade in NPB. He only threw three innings this spring, but he retired eight of those nine outs via the K.
State of the Farm: The farm is not super lengthy, but plenty of Mibble teams would love to have it even after the past few months of wheeling and dealing since new management took over. Ethan Salas has been gushed about for maturity and talent beyond his years, while James Wood had a pretty good spring training. Other top 100 names include Kevin Alcantara, Leo De Vries, and Dylan Lesko.
Biggest Question Mark: Major league depth. The quality level at most positions will make the Padres a contender for the NL West crown this summer, assuming health. The offensive bench is minimal, and they could probably use a couple more relievers.
Arrow Up/Down: Undoubtedly up. Most fellow Mibble GMs would sell their souls to have a roster that looked like this, especially with multiple stars lined up for potential 30% HTD over the next few winters. On paper this looks like a 100-win club, which should mean a playoff spot for a franchise that reached the postseason 2017-2021 (including four straight division titles) before falling short the past two years. The outlook beyond 2024 looks good as well.
Colorado Rockies
'23 Finish: 131-39-10, 1st in division; lost in NLCS
'24 Prediction: 1st in division
Offseason Acquisition: For the most part the Rockies roster is largely the same as it was in the NLCS in September. The most notable acquisition is probably Aaron Nola, who has been a beacon of general durability for a long time. Nola mainly helps offset the departure of fellow IRL Phillie Zack Wheeler in free agency. Offensively there are a couple of new faces in the outfield (Laureano and Benintendi) who probably will not blow anyone’s socks off, especially compared to the departed Xander Bogaerts.
Breakout/Sleeper: Going to stick with my prediction from last year and expect a sophomore breakout from homegrown Ezequiel Tovar. A consensus top-25 prospect a year ago, Tovar signed a contract extension IRL with Colorado earlier this week and should hold a starting role at short for years to come. As written here before, he only spent five games at AAA before debuting in the majors at 21 years old. A .253/.287/.408 slash for a rookie defensive wizard is perfectly passable, especially given the aggressive advancement through AA and AAA to MLB the prior year. As a comp, imagine Geraldo Perdomo’s trajectory over the past three years – but with more thump and the Mile High environment. Shortstop across the bigs has tons of talent, but don’t be surprised if Tovar is in the All-Star conversation before long (someone from Colorado has to go anyway).
State of the Farm: Poor-ish. The Mibble Colorado system is limited compared to most of its peers, though there are a few promising prospects especially in the outfield (Yanquiel Fernandez, Zac Veen, Brock Jones). But the Mibble window in the NL West is still there for 2024 and possibly 2025, so maybe that will buy some draft and development time.
Biggest Question Mark: Can the Rockies replicate their 2023 success? Overall this is still a pretty good team, but the division is getting stronger; holding the line or close to it probably will not mean 131 wins again. Health and some performance improvement (Tovar and Eloy Jimenez, among others) will determine their 2024 fate.
Arrow Up/Down: Neutral. Candidly thought the 2023 Rockies would win division but be closer to the 87-win 2022 performance. Expect some regression, but they remain the division favorites.
