2023 Season Preview: The East
Mar 29, 2023 23:34:08 GMT -5
St. Louis GM (Bert), Braves GM (Eric), and 5 more like this
Post by Red Sox GM (Nick) on Mar 29, 2023 23:34:08 GMT -5
Part three of the 2023 Mibble season preview is here! You didn't think we could crank these out in three straight days, did you? Keep the comments flowing, and stay tuned for our playoff predictions. Will let you digest these two divisions first.
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NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
'22 Finish: 52 W, 4th in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 5th in division
Offseason Acquisition: Acquired in a cap-eating move, Brandon Belt provides a solid bat looking for a bounceback in his first foray outside San Francisco. I think Belt is in a perfect situation in Toronto where the expectations won't be too high, and he could benefit from a relatively stronger lineup around him than what he left behind stateside.
Breakout/Sleeper: Pick a prospect backstop - I'd say Bo Naylor but he won't start the season in Cleveland, so let's go with Logan O'Hoppe. He'll be the youngest Angels catcher to start Opening Day and catch Ohtani to boot. Benefitting from Max Stassi starting the year on the IL, O'Hoppe will hop right into significant playing time, and I think the bat is good enough that he could run with it. He may have only played 6 games at AAA in 2021 before spending all of 2022 at AA, but 70 BB vs 74 K with a .283/.416/.544 and 26 HR last year suggest he could hold his own - even moreso when you consider the usual lack of offense from the catcher position.
State of the Farm: The system is well stocked and on the verge of some of the headliners reaching The Show including Andrew Painter, Naylor, O'Hoppe, and Braden Shewmake. The list is lengthy beyond those names and includes a number of younger prospects that are further away but could be rocketing up the charts in short order.
Biggest Question Mark: What moves does the front office need to make to begin ascending in the NL East in 2024? The active roster has a number of holes and lacks depth, but the prospects should start arriving this year so they could be a nuisance as the season progresses. But they will need to complement the youth with some veteran talent to compete next year.
Arrow Up/Down: Neutral. Standings wise you can lock in their 5th place finish, which technically is one place down from 2022. However you could also argue the quality of the active roster is slightly up this year and should start to trend more heavily in that direction.
Washington Nationals
'22 Finish: 45 W, 5th in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 4th in division
Offseason Acquisition: Effectively flipping Elehuris Montero and Brenton Doyle for Trevor Rogers and Bryan De La Cruz over the course of the offseason sounds pretty good to me. Ignore Rogers sophomore slump and any concerns about playing time for De La Cruz. Four years of arb control for each of them is 100% the side I'd rather be on vs the specific prospects given up. Expect Rogers to bounce back, and De La Cruz is a Miami OF who can hit.
Breakout/Sleeper: I'd pick Curtis Mead if I was convinced he'd get called up early enough AND get significant playing time for the Rays, but I'll save myself some typing here and roll with Rogers and De La Cruz. 2022 will have people sleeping on these guys
State of the Farm: Few systems would rank higher than the Washington farm right now. Kyle Manzardo, Mead, Brady House, Elly De La Cruz, Jack Leiter, and DL Hall headline this group, and that doesn't even touch upon the plethora of OF options or Cade Cavalli (lost for 2023 due to TJ).
Biggest Question Mark: Those young guys are on their way to complement an improving active roster. But the pitching was among the worst in Mibble last year, and it is hard to say how improved they'll be in 2023. Any success there would give the Nats a chance to push for 70+ wins.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. I think the lineup has some interesting pieces and reason for optimism, even before some of the prospect headliners above arrive. We'll start to see Washington on the move up the standings this season.
New York Mets
'22 Finish: 71 W, 3rd in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 3rd in division
Offseason Acquisition: Francisco Lindor. This move made a ton of sense for the Mets, because this year's salary does not matter much as they are not a serious contender yet. To me this is all about 2024 and beyond, locking in one of the best SS in the game at a 30% HTD.
Breakout/Sleeper: Josh Lowe got off to a rough start in his rookie year before returning with a respectable showing in July and then staying hot at the AAA level the rest of the way. He is not promised consistent playing time in 2023, but I think he breaks out and forces the hand of Tampa Bay's management.
State of the Farm: Can't say it is strong, but some of the better names are on the pitching side where I think they can use help the most at the major league level. Hopefully the MLB Mets hit on some draft picks and IFAs over the next couple of years and develop some of the talent the Mibble Mets still have under control.
Biggest Question Mark: Probably the outfield. No reliable everyday starter there, but several options with varying question marks driving their playing time. Lowe might be the best of the bunch and the only long-term piece. Outside of that, it is worth seeing how the pitching staff plays out. Kodai Senga could be the bellwether for their success this season.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. The active roster is improving, and the best-case scenario has the Mets pushing towards 2nd in the East this year - but probably not a playoff team.
Miami Marlins
'22 Finish: 113 W, 2nd in division; lost in Wild Card round
'23 Prediction: 2nd in division
Offseason Acquisition: Corey Kluber will start Opening Day for the MLB Red Sox, and the Marlins pretty much acquired him for a song and a dance this winter. The former Cy Young winner may not approach his past peak, but I would argue he is finally a couple years removed from an unfortunate string of injuries. Even duplicating his 2022 performance would benefit most teams in Mibble, but I think he may find one more gear in Boston.
Breakout/Sleeper: At some point Trevor Larnach has to carry over his .700+ slugging from spring training to break out during the regular season, right? Four years running, by the way. Don't believe me? Check it out: www.mlb.com/player/trevor-larnach-663616?stats=career-s-hitting-mlb&year=2023
State of the Farm: The focus in recent years has been on contention, and some of their best prospects got shipped out in the past year including Eury Perez. There are a few good prospects still in tow including Jake Eder, Jacob Berry, and Brayan Rocchio. Would rate the current farm system in the lower half of Mibble but plenty of controllable major league talent right now should buy some time for development.
Biggest Question Mark: The outfield beyond Kyle Tucker. Jazz is shifting out to CF this season for the first time in his career, so we'll see if that negatively distracts him offensively. There is no replacing Aaron Judge, especially with a rotating set of options. The rest of the active roster is in pretty good shape, so the OF probably is the linchpin to how far the Marlins can go in 2023.
Arrow Up/Down: Down. The ownership turnover this offseason certainly did not help given some of their star free agents were available in the early FA rounds. Dan stabilized the ship, and he clearly pivoted the makeup of the roster to be a bit more sustainable into the future. There was so much star power on the roster six months ago that there was some margin for error without falling from playoff contender status.
Atlanta Braves
'22 Finish: 124 W, 1st in division; National League champions
'23 Prediction: 1st in division
Offseason Acquisition: Gleyber Torres was a crafty pickup especially given cap considerations and Ozzie Albies having hit free agency. There has been talk for months about whether the Evil Empire would move him for other needs, especially with their glut of SS prospects arriving near term. While he may never quite replicate the success of his first two seasons, he is still an above average 2B offensively. Of course don't forget the mega trade that brought in Dylan Cease among others.
Breakout/Sleeper: Ramon Laureano. Injuries and suspension have cut his past two seasons in half and hampered his performance - or was it that the roids helped him before that? Three years removed from a very nice sophomore campaign in 2019, I believe Laureano can bounce back in 2023 and secure a nice payday in Mibble free agency next winter (especially if he can rack up enough appearances in CF spelling Esteury Ruiz).
State of the Farm: Not much is protected at this point, but thankfully the Braves have been pretty reliable in recent years in terms of drafting/signing and developing (and I guess figuring out which guys to move on from - see Cristian Pache for latest example).
Biggest Question Mark: Hard to imagine a scenario where the Braves miss the 2023 playoffs, so the big question seems to be - will they return to the World Series and finish the job this year? Set your countdown timer to 4.5 months and we'll start to find out.
Arrow Up/Down: Neutral. Front office did a great job maintaining their talent level this offseason, even despite trading away Austin Riley and Mookie Betts. With a nearly clear path in the NL East, an NL pennant repeat is very much a possibility.
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AL East
Yankees
'22 Finish: 27 W 5th in AL East
'23 Prediction: 5th in AL East
Offseason Acquisition: Aaron Judge! The Yankees apparently decided that the rebuild process was too slow so they decided to accelerate it by opening up the wallet and shelling out $18.5 to pry Judge and the 49 HR he has averaged per 162 games away from the Marlins. They'll even hold a %30 discount resigning him for his age 36 season in 2028.
Breakout/Sleeper: Oswaldo Cabrera. Or is it Peraza? No, Cabrera. Cabrera is the Oswaldo to watch out for. And you should watch out, he managed a 20/20 season with an .863 OPS between AA and AAA in '21 and had a scorching hot spring training this year. He can play just about anywhere on the diamond so while he may not have an everyday job right away they will find a spot for him if he is hitting which will only help his value when he adds multi position eligibility.
State of the Farm: Red SS Matt McLain headlines the non-Yankee farmhands and he looks to be a nice addition alongside the Martian Jaason Dominguez. Both should be contributing to the Yanks lineup well before Judge's contract expires. Austin Wells, Roderick Arias and Trey Sweeney are also names to look out for a little further down the line and the IRL Yankees are always willing to open the wallet on the international market so who knows what exciting additions this system could add.
Biggest Question mark: Pitching. It's going to be Gerrit Cole and a bunch of relievers most weeks. Beyond that there are a bunch of question marks that will get some run but no one I would bet on getting 20+ starts.
Arrow up/down? Up. There will be more Ws in '23 than '22 for this team, but the state of the pitching staff and the unfortunate injury to Rhys Hoskins will probably relegate the bombers to another year at the bottom of the AL east standings. If Dominguez progresses as most think he will and Hoskins comes back with a shiny new ACL next year this team could be primed to move up the standings in 2024.
Rays
'22 Finish: 97 W, 2nd in AL East, Wildcard winner. Lost in Divisional round.
'23 Prediction 4th in AL East
Offseason acquisition: Brooks Raley. Solid move to pick up the Mets lefty set up man. A hold is as good as a save and Raley should pile them up in New York. This was a sneaky solid pickup at a low cost.
Breakout/Sleeper: Mark Mathias. Mathias has bounced around a little bit since being a 3rd round draftee of Cleveland back in 2015 and he has never been a mainstay of prospect lists but he has continued to show good OBP skills to go along with a bit of power a bit of speed and the ability to play all over the diamond. Catching on with the Pirates gives him a chance to grab a starting job if he can continue to hit; if he does this could be a value addition for Tampa.
State of the farm system: Pretty barren. The Rays have been trading away prospects to build the MLB roster for years and it has landed them a pile of wildcard appearances, division titles and an AL title but it has left the cupboard a little bare. Homegrown Carson Williams and Mason Auer have remained in the system and look like they could be contributing to the Rays in the coming years.
Biggest question mark? How good is Jeremy Pena? Pena planted a flag in the playoffs last year crushing the ball through the postseason. 22 HR and 11 SB during the regular season last year are great for a rookie SS, but the accompanying .289 OBP make it hard for the "Stros to pencil him in at the top of the lineup. Pena was the 16th ranked SS on the player rater last year but if he can put the ball in play a bit more, take some more walks and get his way into the top third of the lineup he could move comfortably inside the top 10.
Arrow up/down? Down. This is a pretty solid team that will compete most weeks but with what I imagine has to be the oldest SP staff in the Mibble and not much cap space to make moves I think the Rays are going to come up short of the playoffs this time around.
Blue Jays
'22 Finish: 89 W 4th in AL East
'23 Prediction: 3rd in AL East
Offseason Acquisition: SS/2B Tommy Edman. The Jays pulled the trigger on trading away Ricky Tiedmann and utilizing a good chunk of cap space to add George Springer and Tommy Edman to the lineup. Edman stole 32 bases last year in addition to a dozen homers and 95 runs scored. All of that combined to make him the #6 ranked SS on the player rater and given that he is 28, healthy and hitting a top a solid lineup he should continue to produce at a very high level. Great addition.
Breakout/Sleeper: Nate Pearson. Pearson could've filled this spot last year as a breakout candidate but he was usurped by fellow 1st round SP Alek Manoah. There is plenty of competition for rotation spots in Toronto so Pearson will likely have to head to AAA to start the year and force his way into the conversation but given his pedigree and how he looked in winter and spring ball he may be able to do just that.
State of the farm: A bit thin. Trading prospects for big league help has been a Jays strategy for a while and with Manoah and Pearson graduated and Tiedemann and Zuleta traded away for Edman/Springer most of the orgs top end talent is gone from the farm A few interesting names remain and there are some high ceiling guys in the low minors plus the Jays seem to have a habit of having someone pop from the low levels fairly frequently so this system may not be as bad as it looks at a glance.
Biggest Question mark: Is it enough? The Jays are a team you do not want to be facing if you need to make up ground in your division. They are solid from top to bottom and have a bit of depth to weather some storms, but they lack truly high end talent that can cover for injuries or disappointments from other positions. Basically nearly all of their players have to play up to potential for this team to succeed. If they make the playoffs it will be because they got contributions from every spot.
Arrow up/down? Up. This is a better team than it was last year, and they had a pretty good year last year. I don't think it is quite going to come all together for them to get over the hump but they will be in contention late in the season.
Red Sox
'22 Finish:94 W 3rd in AL East, Back to Back consolation bracket winner
'23 Prediction: 2nd in AL East, THIRD TIME CONSOLATION BRACKET WINNER! (**editor's note: not my prediction, but at least we are consistently the best at something**)
Offseason Acquisition: Masatka Yoshida. The big FA signing of the parent clubs' offseason also counts for their Mibble counterparts as they are gifted a big league ready OF. In his prime at 29 years old he hit for average and power in Japan and should plug right into a corner spot for the Sox, filling a big need.
Breakout/Sleeper: Gerardo Perdomo. Another offseason acquisition, Perdomo struggled in his first taste of big league action last year hitting just .195. He is just 23 and posted very solid OBP figures in the minors when he was a top 100 prospect so he could very well establish himself as a big league hitter this year. He certainly got off to a good start posting excellent spring training numbers and pushing to be installed as the #1 SS ahead of Nick Ahmed. Perdomo got some reps at 2B and 3B last year so if he hits like he has shown he is capable of at lower levels they will find a spot for him. With the rule changes this year he could add a pile of SB by year's end.
State of the Farm: Top heavy. The Sox have managed to hold on to homegrown guys Marcelo Mayer and Cedanne Rafaella in addition to adding A's backstop Shea Langeliers all of whom could be making noise at the big league level soon. There just isn't a ton of depth behind those guys and the Red Sox have not exactly been a model of player development in recent years so there may not be much help coming out of nowhere.
Biggest question mark? Health. The Sox were already dealt a tough blow losing Gavin Lux for the season and he will have some company on the IL as Bryce Harper and Harrison Bader rehab injuries as well. Several members of the pitching staff have health questions as well so it could be a long season of scrambling to fill gaps if things go south for some of the team's key players.
Arrow up/down? Up. With a mix of youngins and veterans, solid depth all around the Red Sox should be competitive all year long. I'm going to put them just outside of the playoff picture looking in given the injury concerns and lack of cap space to maneuver reinforcements but the window won't close this year, the Sox will be competitive in the East for years to come. A third straight consolation bracket title could be in the offing.
Orioles
'22 Finish: 103 W, 1st AL East, lost in Wildcard round
'23 Prediction: 1st in AL East
Offseason Acquisition: Sixto Sanchez. Adding a 24 year old top 10 SP prospect just as he is getting established in MLB is not an easy task and the O's certainly sacrificed some upside shipping out Royce Lewis and Brandon Williamson in order to bring Sixto under the tent. HIgh strikeouts, low walks, Sanchez seems to be the real deal and he joins an explosive young rotation in Baltimore with McClanahan, Baz, Severino, and Urias already putting up solid numbers with years of arbitration control left.
Breakout/Sleeper: Kyle Stowers. Back to back years in AA and AAA posting an OPS over .880, Stowers was able to make his way to Camden Yards last year. The strikeout problems that plagued him in the minors followed to the big leagues but most of the power did as well. If he can cut down the Ks he could be a sneaky source of power in that ballpark.
State of the Farm system: A lot of graduations and a few trades to build the core of their young MLB roster have thinned out this system considerably but some talent still remains. 1st rounder Jackson Holliday leads the group but fellow IFs Jordan Westburg, Brice Turang, Bryan Ramos and Connor Norby form a very solid group. OF and pitching might be a little thin down on the farm but it doesn't look like the big league roster will be in need of those spots for a few years at least.
Biggest Question mark: SS. Luis Urias and Jorge Mateo enter the season competing to be the O's starting SS. Solid pop from Urias and excellent speed from Mateo, but lackluster averages from both and potential threats to playing time make neither a lock to nail down the position. The O's may be able to pick their spots rotating these two and getting a solid power/speed SS in the aggregate but it will take some close attention.
Arrow up/Down?: Up for the long term outlook. I didn't expect the O's to win 103 games and the AL East last year, but they aren't going to sneak up on anyone this year, A great young rotation a solid and deep lineup and an owner that has shown a willingness to swing deals put them on pace for a second division title in as many years. I don't think they quite have enough to win it all this year but you could be seeing the beginning of a 90's Braves type run atop the division.
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NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
'22 Finish: 52 W, 4th in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 5th in division
Offseason Acquisition: Acquired in a cap-eating move, Brandon Belt provides a solid bat looking for a bounceback in his first foray outside San Francisco. I think Belt is in a perfect situation in Toronto where the expectations won't be too high, and he could benefit from a relatively stronger lineup around him than what he left behind stateside.
Breakout/Sleeper: Pick a prospect backstop - I'd say Bo Naylor but he won't start the season in Cleveland, so let's go with Logan O'Hoppe. He'll be the youngest Angels catcher to start Opening Day and catch Ohtani to boot. Benefitting from Max Stassi starting the year on the IL, O'Hoppe will hop right into significant playing time, and I think the bat is good enough that he could run with it. He may have only played 6 games at AAA in 2021 before spending all of 2022 at AA, but 70 BB vs 74 K with a .283/.416/.544 and 26 HR last year suggest he could hold his own - even moreso when you consider the usual lack of offense from the catcher position.
State of the Farm: The system is well stocked and on the verge of some of the headliners reaching The Show including Andrew Painter, Naylor, O'Hoppe, and Braden Shewmake. The list is lengthy beyond those names and includes a number of younger prospects that are further away but could be rocketing up the charts in short order.
Biggest Question Mark: What moves does the front office need to make to begin ascending in the NL East in 2024? The active roster has a number of holes and lacks depth, but the prospects should start arriving this year so they could be a nuisance as the season progresses. But they will need to complement the youth with some veteran talent to compete next year.
Arrow Up/Down: Neutral. Standings wise you can lock in their 5th place finish, which technically is one place down from 2022. However you could also argue the quality of the active roster is slightly up this year and should start to trend more heavily in that direction.
Washington Nationals
'22 Finish: 45 W, 5th in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 4th in division
Offseason Acquisition: Effectively flipping Elehuris Montero and Brenton Doyle for Trevor Rogers and Bryan De La Cruz over the course of the offseason sounds pretty good to me. Ignore Rogers sophomore slump and any concerns about playing time for De La Cruz. Four years of arb control for each of them is 100% the side I'd rather be on vs the specific prospects given up. Expect Rogers to bounce back, and De La Cruz is a Miami OF who can hit.
Breakout/Sleeper: I'd pick Curtis Mead if I was convinced he'd get called up early enough AND get significant playing time for the Rays, but I'll save myself some typing here and roll with Rogers and De La Cruz. 2022 will have people sleeping on these guys
State of the Farm: Few systems would rank higher than the Washington farm right now. Kyle Manzardo, Mead, Brady House, Elly De La Cruz, Jack Leiter, and DL Hall headline this group, and that doesn't even touch upon the plethora of OF options or Cade Cavalli (lost for 2023 due to TJ).
Biggest Question Mark: Those young guys are on their way to complement an improving active roster. But the pitching was among the worst in Mibble last year, and it is hard to say how improved they'll be in 2023. Any success there would give the Nats a chance to push for 70+ wins.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. I think the lineup has some interesting pieces and reason for optimism, even before some of the prospect headliners above arrive. We'll start to see Washington on the move up the standings this season.
New York Mets
'22 Finish: 71 W, 3rd in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 3rd in division
Offseason Acquisition: Francisco Lindor. This move made a ton of sense for the Mets, because this year's salary does not matter much as they are not a serious contender yet. To me this is all about 2024 and beyond, locking in one of the best SS in the game at a 30% HTD.
Breakout/Sleeper: Josh Lowe got off to a rough start in his rookie year before returning with a respectable showing in July and then staying hot at the AAA level the rest of the way. He is not promised consistent playing time in 2023, but I think he breaks out and forces the hand of Tampa Bay's management.
State of the Farm: Can't say it is strong, but some of the better names are on the pitching side where I think they can use help the most at the major league level. Hopefully the MLB Mets hit on some draft picks and IFAs over the next couple of years and develop some of the talent the Mibble Mets still have under control.
Biggest Question Mark: Probably the outfield. No reliable everyday starter there, but several options with varying question marks driving their playing time. Lowe might be the best of the bunch and the only long-term piece. Outside of that, it is worth seeing how the pitching staff plays out. Kodai Senga could be the bellwether for their success this season.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. The active roster is improving, and the best-case scenario has the Mets pushing towards 2nd in the East this year - but probably not a playoff team.
Miami Marlins
'22 Finish: 113 W, 2nd in division; lost in Wild Card round
'23 Prediction: 2nd in division
Offseason Acquisition: Corey Kluber will start Opening Day for the MLB Red Sox, and the Marlins pretty much acquired him for a song and a dance this winter. The former Cy Young winner may not approach his past peak, but I would argue he is finally a couple years removed from an unfortunate string of injuries. Even duplicating his 2022 performance would benefit most teams in Mibble, but I think he may find one more gear in Boston.
Breakout/Sleeper: At some point Trevor Larnach has to carry over his .700+ slugging from spring training to break out during the regular season, right? Four years running, by the way. Don't believe me? Check it out: www.mlb.com/player/trevor-larnach-663616?stats=career-s-hitting-mlb&year=2023
State of the Farm: The focus in recent years has been on contention, and some of their best prospects got shipped out in the past year including Eury Perez. There are a few good prospects still in tow including Jake Eder, Jacob Berry, and Brayan Rocchio. Would rate the current farm system in the lower half of Mibble but plenty of controllable major league talent right now should buy some time for development.
Biggest Question Mark: The outfield beyond Kyle Tucker. Jazz is shifting out to CF this season for the first time in his career, so we'll see if that negatively distracts him offensively. There is no replacing Aaron Judge, especially with a rotating set of options. The rest of the active roster is in pretty good shape, so the OF probably is the linchpin to how far the Marlins can go in 2023.
Arrow Up/Down: Down. The ownership turnover this offseason certainly did not help given some of their star free agents were available in the early FA rounds. Dan stabilized the ship, and he clearly pivoted the makeup of the roster to be a bit more sustainable into the future. There was so much star power on the roster six months ago that there was some margin for error without falling from playoff contender status.
Atlanta Braves
'22 Finish: 124 W, 1st in division; National League champions
'23 Prediction: 1st in division
Offseason Acquisition: Gleyber Torres was a crafty pickup especially given cap considerations and Ozzie Albies having hit free agency. There has been talk for months about whether the Evil Empire would move him for other needs, especially with their glut of SS prospects arriving near term. While he may never quite replicate the success of his first two seasons, he is still an above average 2B offensively. Of course don't forget the mega trade that brought in Dylan Cease among others.
Breakout/Sleeper: Ramon Laureano. Injuries and suspension have cut his past two seasons in half and hampered his performance - or was it that the roids helped him before that? Three years removed from a very nice sophomore campaign in 2019, I believe Laureano can bounce back in 2023 and secure a nice payday in Mibble free agency next winter (especially if he can rack up enough appearances in CF spelling Esteury Ruiz).
State of the Farm: Not much is protected at this point, but thankfully the Braves have been pretty reliable in recent years in terms of drafting/signing and developing (and I guess figuring out which guys to move on from - see Cristian Pache for latest example).
Biggest Question Mark: Hard to imagine a scenario where the Braves miss the 2023 playoffs, so the big question seems to be - will they return to the World Series and finish the job this year? Set your countdown timer to 4.5 months and we'll start to find out.
Arrow Up/Down: Neutral. Front office did a great job maintaining their talent level this offseason, even despite trading away Austin Riley and Mookie Betts. With a nearly clear path in the NL East, an NL pennant repeat is very much a possibility.
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AL East
Yankees
'22 Finish: 27 W 5th in AL East
'23 Prediction: 5th in AL East
Offseason Acquisition: Aaron Judge! The Yankees apparently decided that the rebuild process was too slow so they decided to accelerate it by opening up the wallet and shelling out $18.5 to pry Judge and the 49 HR he has averaged per 162 games away from the Marlins. They'll even hold a %30 discount resigning him for his age 36 season in 2028.
Breakout/Sleeper: Oswaldo Cabrera. Or is it Peraza? No, Cabrera. Cabrera is the Oswaldo to watch out for. And you should watch out, he managed a 20/20 season with an .863 OPS between AA and AAA in '21 and had a scorching hot spring training this year. He can play just about anywhere on the diamond so while he may not have an everyday job right away they will find a spot for him if he is hitting which will only help his value when he adds multi position eligibility.
State of the Farm: Red SS Matt McLain headlines the non-Yankee farmhands and he looks to be a nice addition alongside the Martian Jaason Dominguez. Both should be contributing to the Yanks lineup well before Judge's contract expires. Austin Wells, Roderick Arias and Trey Sweeney are also names to look out for a little further down the line and the IRL Yankees are always willing to open the wallet on the international market so who knows what exciting additions this system could add.
Biggest Question mark: Pitching. It's going to be Gerrit Cole and a bunch of relievers most weeks. Beyond that there are a bunch of question marks that will get some run but no one I would bet on getting 20+ starts.
Arrow up/down? Up. There will be more Ws in '23 than '22 for this team, but the state of the pitching staff and the unfortunate injury to Rhys Hoskins will probably relegate the bombers to another year at the bottom of the AL east standings. If Dominguez progresses as most think he will and Hoskins comes back with a shiny new ACL next year this team could be primed to move up the standings in 2024.
Rays
'22 Finish: 97 W, 2nd in AL East, Wildcard winner. Lost in Divisional round.
'23 Prediction 4th in AL East
Offseason acquisition: Brooks Raley. Solid move to pick up the Mets lefty set up man. A hold is as good as a save and Raley should pile them up in New York. This was a sneaky solid pickup at a low cost.
Breakout/Sleeper: Mark Mathias. Mathias has bounced around a little bit since being a 3rd round draftee of Cleveland back in 2015 and he has never been a mainstay of prospect lists but he has continued to show good OBP skills to go along with a bit of power a bit of speed and the ability to play all over the diamond. Catching on with the Pirates gives him a chance to grab a starting job if he can continue to hit; if he does this could be a value addition for Tampa.
State of the farm system: Pretty barren. The Rays have been trading away prospects to build the MLB roster for years and it has landed them a pile of wildcard appearances, division titles and an AL title but it has left the cupboard a little bare. Homegrown Carson Williams and Mason Auer have remained in the system and look like they could be contributing to the Rays in the coming years.
Biggest question mark? How good is Jeremy Pena? Pena planted a flag in the playoffs last year crushing the ball through the postseason. 22 HR and 11 SB during the regular season last year are great for a rookie SS, but the accompanying .289 OBP make it hard for the "Stros to pencil him in at the top of the lineup. Pena was the 16th ranked SS on the player rater last year but if he can put the ball in play a bit more, take some more walks and get his way into the top third of the lineup he could move comfortably inside the top 10.
Arrow up/down? Down. This is a pretty solid team that will compete most weeks but with what I imagine has to be the oldest SP staff in the Mibble and not much cap space to make moves I think the Rays are going to come up short of the playoffs this time around.
Blue Jays
'22 Finish: 89 W 4th in AL East
'23 Prediction: 3rd in AL East
Offseason Acquisition: SS/2B Tommy Edman. The Jays pulled the trigger on trading away Ricky Tiedmann and utilizing a good chunk of cap space to add George Springer and Tommy Edman to the lineup. Edman stole 32 bases last year in addition to a dozen homers and 95 runs scored. All of that combined to make him the #6 ranked SS on the player rater and given that he is 28, healthy and hitting a top a solid lineup he should continue to produce at a very high level. Great addition.
Breakout/Sleeper: Nate Pearson. Pearson could've filled this spot last year as a breakout candidate but he was usurped by fellow 1st round SP Alek Manoah. There is plenty of competition for rotation spots in Toronto so Pearson will likely have to head to AAA to start the year and force his way into the conversation but given his pedigree and how he looked in winter and spring ball he may be able to do just that.
State of the farm: A bit thin. Trading prospects for big league help has been a Jays strategy for a while and with Manoah and Pearson graduated and Tiedemann and Zuleta traded away for Edman/Springer most of the orgs top end talent is gone from the farm A few interesting names remain and there are some high ceiling guys in the low minors plus the Jays seem to have a habit of having someone pop from the low levels fairly frequently so this system may not be as bad as it looks at a glance.
Biggest Question mark: Is it enough? The Jays are a team you do not want to be facing if you need to make up ground in your division. They are solid from top to bottom and have a bit of depth to weather some storms, but they lack truly high end talent that can cover for injuries or disappointments from other positions. Basically nearly all of their players have to play up to potential for this team to succeed. If they make the playoffs it will be because they got contributions from every spot.
Arrow up/down? Up. This is a better team than it was last year, and they had a pretty good year last year. I don't think it is quite going to come all together for them to get over the hump but they will be in contention late in the season.
Red Sox
'22 Finish:94 W 3rd in AL East, Back to Back consolation bracket winner
'23 Prediction: 2nd in AL East, THIRD TIME CONSOLATION BRACKET WINNER! (**editor's note: not my prediction, but at least we are consistently the best at something**)
Offseason Acquisition: Masatka Yoshida. The big FA signing of the parent clubs' offseason also counts for their Mibble counterparts as they are gifted a big league ready OF. In his prime at 29 years old he hit for average and power in Japan and should plug right into a corner spot for the Sox, filling a big need.
Breakout/Sleeper: Gerardo Perdomo. Another offseason acquisition, Perdomo struggled in his first taste of big league action last year hitting just .195. He is just 23 and posted very solid OBP figures in the minors when he was a top 100 prospect so he could very well establish himself as a big league hitter this year. He certainly got off to a good start posting excellent spring training numbers and pushing to be installed as the #1 SS ahead of Nick Ahmed. Perdomo got some reps at 2B and 3B last year so if he hits like he has shown he is capable of at lower levels they will find a spot for him. With the rule changes this year he could add a pile of SB by year's end.
State of the Farm: Top heavy. The Sox have managed to hold on to homegrown guys Marcelo Mayer and Cedanne Rafaella in addition to adding A's backstop Shea Langeliers all of whom could be making noise at the big league level soon. There just isn't a ton of depth behind those guys and the Red Sox have not exactly been a model of player development in recent years so there may not be much help coming out of nowhere.
Biggest question mark? Health. The Sox were already dealt a tough blow losing Gavin Lux for the season and he will have some company on the IL as Bryce Harper and Harrison Bader rehab injuries as well. Several members of the pitching staff have health questions as well so it could be a long season of scrambling to fill gaps if things go south for some of the team's key players.
Arrow up/down? Up. With a mix of youngins and veterans, solid depth all around the Red Sox should be competitive all year long. I'm going to put them just outside of the playoff picture looking in given the injury concerns and lack of cap space to maneuver reinforcements but the window won't close this year, the Sox will be competitive in the East for years to come. A third straight consolation bracket title could be in the offing.
Orioles
'22 Finish: 103 W, 1st AL East, lost in Wildcard round
'23 Prediction: 1st in AL East
Offseason Acquisition: Sixto Sanchez. Adding a 24 year old top 10 SP prospect just as he is getting established in MLB is not an easy task and the O's certainly sacrificed some upside shipping out Royce Lewis and Brandon Williamson in order to bring Sixto under the tent. HIgh strikeouts, low walks, Sanchez seems to be the real deal and he joins an explosive young rotation in Baltimore with McClanahan, Baz, Severino, and Urias already putting up solid numbers with years of arbitration control left.
Breakout/Sleeper: Kyle Stowers. Back to back years in AA and AAA posting an OPS over .880, Stowers was able to make his way to Camden Yards last year. The strikeout problems that plagued him in the minors followed to the big leagues but most of the power did as well. If he can cut down the Ks he could be a sneaky source of power in that ballpark.
State of the Farm system: A lot of graduations and a few trades to build the core of their young MLB roster have thinned out this system considerably but some talent still remains. 1st rounder Jackson Holliday leads the group but fellow IFs Jordan Westburg, Brice Turang, Bryan Ramos and Connor Norby form a very solid group. OF and pitching might be a little thin down on the farm but it doesn't look like the big league roster will be in need of those spots for a few years at least.
Biggest Question mark: SS. Luis Urias and Jorge Mateo enter the season competing to be the O's starting SS. Solid pop from Urias and excellent speed from Mateo, but lackluster averages from both and potential threats to playing time make neither a lock to nail down the position. The O's may be able to pick their spots rotating these two and getting a solid power/speed SS in the aggregate but it will take some close attention.
Arrow up/Down?: Up for the long term outlook. I didn't expect the O's to win 103 games and the AL East last year, but they aren't going to sneak up on anyone this year, A great young rotation a solid and deep lineup and an owner that has shown a willingness to swing deals put them on pace for a second division title in as many years. I don't think they quite have enough to win it all this year but you could be seeing the beginning of a 90's Braves type run atop the division.
