2023 Season Preview: The Central
Mar 29, 2023 0:02:21 GMT -5
St. Louis GM (Bert), Reds GM (Kyler), and 6 more like this
Post by Red Sox GM (Nick) on Mar 29, 2023 0:02:21 GMT -5
Part 2 of the Mibble season preview is here! Today we venture to the middle of the country. Keep the reactions coming as we count down the final 36 (!!) hours until first pitch in DC and the Bronx.
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NL Central
St Louis Cardinals
'22 Finish: 61 W, 5th in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 5th in division
Offseason Acquisition: Josiah Gray. Padres GM (Bill) said it best in November: "I'm really weirded out that the current mlber is going to the Cardinals in this trade." But that move sets the tone for the 2023 outlook for St Louis, which is potentially the start of their climb up the NL Central ladder.
Breakout/Sleeper: The homer in me would love to talk about Triston Casas. You could say Jordan Walker, but there is plenty of exuberant gushing about him already. Even though either of those may turn out to be the correct answer, let's go with Nolan Gorman. This guy just needs ABs to put his .226/.300/.421 debut in the rear view, and with Pujols out of the way he should be able to find more despite an ever crowded, talented MLB roster. Don't forget he was a consensus top 50ish or better prospect climbing every year from 2019 through 2022.
State of the Farm: Don't ask Bert, he'll be modest. Stacked. Among the best in Mibble. Plenty of big names and tons of lottery tickets. This to go with some of their recent and imminent graduates, and the rest of the National League should keep an eye on what is brewing in St Louis - and I don't mean at the Anheuser-Busch factory south of the stadium.
Biggest Question Mark: Pitching. The Cards need some guys to take a step forward in 2023 if they are going to make serious noise. The Gray trade was a good first move in that respect, but likely a few more pieces will be needed in the next year or two as the lineup fills out with budding stars.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. In the NL East they would be middle of the pack, and the NL West a potential contender. In the NL Central, they need several things to go right and some help to make headway up the standings. Don't be surprised to see a 2022 MLB Orioles-like rise though (but similar problem - too many teams ahead of them).
Chicago Cubs
'22 Finish: 91 W, 4th in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 4th in division
Offseason Acquisition: The front office did a lot of wheeling and dealing on the trade market this winter - they traded so much they acquired perhaps the greatest pitcher of this generation and then traded him a short time later. Perhaps the most significant acquisition that stuck was Tim Anderson. Management noted at the time of the deal how his salary may be cheaper than what the cost would have been in the FA market this winter, and the way everyone was spending $ like Lil Wayne, this looks like a potentially shrewd move at the moment for a .300 hitter.
Breakout/Sleeper: James Outman appears likely to get significant CF playing time in LA, and a solid showing would go a long way toward helping the Mibble Cubs. Outman nearly hit .300/.400/.600 across AA and AAA last year, with nearly identical stats across roughly 60 games apiece (and even an uptick in power in AAA). His 2023 spring training line was about the same. Don't underestimate the former 7th round pick.
State of the Farm: It looked better back in September than it does now. Outman, who was acquired during the offseason, is the headliner and about to graduate from prospect status. Truthfully the system could use some new pieces, but clearly the objective is to win now.
Biggest Question Mark: Depth. The Cubs found themselves on the wrong side of several Opening Day roster decisions, so having a complete active lineup to start the season may be a challenge. On the pitching side they may struggle to field a full bullpen and will have to bank on their strong starting pitching being healthy and reliable in 2023.
Arrow Up/Down: Neutral. Plenty of star power here to chase a playoff spot, but the win total does not seem likely to change much in either direction. They'll be in the mix deep into the summer, assuming good health.
Pittsburgh Pirates
'22 Finish: 107 W, 2nd in division; lost in Divisional round
'23 Prediction: 3rd in division
Offseason Acquisition: WIth trade rumblings around JT Realmuto leaking to the press, it probably should come as no surprise that the Pirates used the second-to-last round of free agency to win the bidding for Salvador Perez. Some might grimace at $9 per year for a catcher, but Perez - turning 33 in May - is getting paid $64M IRL over the next three seasons to play catcher for a small market club.
Breakout/Sleeper: No particular sleeper candidates stick out on the Pirates roster, so let's go with a breakout for Bobby Witt Jr. He had a .995 OPS and only struck out 3 times in the small 26-AB sample this spring. I have a hunch that we can see the .254/.294/.428 and 20 HR debut in 2022 - which included a second half fade to a sub-.700 OPS - leap towards something like .280/.320/.500 and 30+ HR in 2023 and make some noise in the MVP conversation.
State of the Farm: Trading away Henry Davis and Nick Gonzales may sting down the line, but the veterans received will play significant roles in 2023 for Pittsburgh (Cron and bullpen help). We should not forget about the trade of Arozarena for 2022 prospect rocket Jackson Chourio. There is speculation he might even sniff The Show in 2023 himself. With a mega prospect like Chourio on the farm and some other solid pieces, hard to complain but there is probably some work to do to restock the system at some point.
Biggest Question Mark: Pitching. A few changes on the hitting side, but their active roster has one SP at the moment - and that one SP will be on the IL on Opening Day. The bullpen has quality pieces, but little depth if any injuries crop up.
Arrow Up/Down: Down a bit. You can't lose Rafael Devers and a majority of your rotation and expect to maintain the same level of success. The lineup however is good enough to remain in playoff contention.
Cincinnati Reds
'22 Finish: 126 W, 1st in division; lost in NLCS
'23 Prediction: 2nd in division
Offseason Acquisition: Some various smaller free agent signings, and of the few trades executed this offseason, their most notable acquisition may be *checks notes* Bailey Falter of the Phillies. But it's not like the Reds, fresh off 126 wins and falling one step shy of playing in the World Series, are hurting for star talent. They return most of last year's roster with the sizable departures of Luis Castillo and Carlos Rodon.
Breakout/Sleeper: Some guy named Shohei... okay, fine, don't believe me. You could talk Falter here if you believe he will stick in the rotation for most of the season. Instead I will highlight Alexis Diaz, who may establish himself as one of the premier closers in the game in 2023 - especially if the young MLB Reds can stack enough wins together to get him more save opps. With only 10 saves and playing for a rebuilding MLB squad, his debut season in 2022 may have gone a bit under the radar; expect that to change.
State of the Farm: Farm? What farm? What is a farm? It is all about now and hopefully cashing in on a stacked lineup with multiple future HOFers before they hit free agency.
Biggest Question Mark: How significant will losing Castillo and Rodon be? The Cincinnati rotation is arguably the deepest in Mibble and may need to rely upon quantity over quality some weeks to wear down the opponents, a little moreso than they had to in 2022.
Arrow Up/Down: Down, but let's not pretend that means they aren't a major contender - the Reds won 126 games in 2022, so there's bound to be at least a little pullback.
Milwaukee Brewers
'22 Finish: 99 W, 3rd in division; lost in Divisional round
'23 Prediction: 1st in division
Offseason Acquisition: Edwin Diaz, Gio Urshela, Paul Goldschmidt who later became Jose Abreu, Yordan Alvarez, Jordan Romano, 2023 spring standout Yusei Kikuchi, Tyler Stephenson. That's a good looking list that did not come cheap via the trade market, not to mention Nate Eovaldi via free agency and a smattering of new supporting cast members.
Breakout/Sleeper: Kikuchi has impressed in prior springs, but the Mibble Brewers and the MLB Blue Jays certainly hope his performance the past month is a sign of a bounceback campaign coming up.
State of the Farm: Depleted after the offseason trades, but like the Reds - you can't complain about the active roster. You just hope the near term payoff comes through. Plenty of Mibble owners would trade rosters with the Brewers in a heartbeat.
Biggest Question Mark: It isn't about the Brewers themselves; it's about their division. The Brewers are plenty deep with talent, but the NL Central remains loaded, and two teams finished ahead of Milwaukee in 2022. Will the Pirates and Reds fall off just enough for the Brewers to surpass them for their second division title?
Arrow Up/Down: Up. The return of Bill to the Milwaukee front office looks like a boon to their chances especially in the near term. There weren't necessarily major gaps on the roster when he took over last summer during the wild card chase, but he has filled whatever holes may have existed these last few months. We are about to find out if it is enough to contend for a World Series title.
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AL Central
Tigers
'22 Finish: 58 W, 5th in AL Central
'23 Projection: 5th in AL Central
Offseason Acquisition: James Kaprielian. Not a lot to choose from as the Tigers sat out much of free agency waiting for their young players to mature before committing cap space. They did add a solid SP via trade in picking up James Kaprielian from the Braves. Pitching in Oakland should give Kap both plenty of leeway to claim a job and, with its spacious dimensions, allow him some luck with FB/HR ratios. This is the kind of sneaky P that often becomes a valuable trade chip in mid season.
Breakout/ Sleeper: Luis Patino. Prospect Du Jour a few years ago Patino was a hot commodity when he was dealt from San Diego to Tampa Bay as part of the Blake Snell deal. Multiple arm injuries have followed and hampered his progress since, but he looks to be healthy once again and after starting the year in AAA he could shake off the rust and deliver the kind of results everyone expected from him a few years ago. Patino was the Tigers other big offseason pickup and he could prove to be a good one.
State of the Farm: Most of the higher end talent has graduated to the big league club, but there is still a good amount of meat left on the bone here. Nick Yorke, Maikel Garcia and Jeremiah Jackson offer upside from the IF while Brennan Davis and Heliot Ramos headline the OF. The pitching is slightly thin, but the Tigers have some home grown arms in the system with potential. A couple of hits from this group added to the lineup along with a good amount of cap space leave the Tigers in a good position going forward to be competitive in short order.
Biggest question mark: Just how much will everyone develop? Corbin Carroll seems like a sure thing but there is some question as to how close to their ceilings Torkleson and Greene will get. There is also some upside with the SP Manning, Mize and Skubal but the clock is already ticking on those guys. This will be a big development year for the Tigers that will determine a lot of moves going forward.
Arrow up/down? Up. There is a lot of young talent here and more on the way from the farm. This division is going to be a bloodbath in the coming years as all of these teams seem poised to compete in the near future. Once the Tigers decide their window is opening and they decide to bolster the roster via free agency they are going to be a force.
White Sox
'22 Finish: 91 W, 3rd in AL Central missed playoffs
'23 prediction: 4th in AL Central
Offseason acquisition: Jose Berrios. Jose had a less than stellar first full season in Toronto after a midseason trade in 2021 but he is still on the right side of 30 and with a little luck he should rebound to his previous well above average ways. This could look like a very smart acquisition at season's end.
Breakout/Sleeper: OF Kyle Lewis. Lewis has lost a little shine since his days as the AL ROY in the shortened 2020 season, but offers an intriguing blend of power, speed and on base ability when everything is going good. He'll likely start the year on the short side of a platoon, but could end up beating out Thomas or Gurriel for ABs fairly quickly if his hot bat in Spring Training carries over when the games start to count. Rays SP Taj Bradley is the other option here for a breakout, but I think they will be a little cautious with him and he ends up spending most of 2023 in AAA.
State of the Farm system: A little thin due mostly to the parent clubs inability to draft and develop. The previously mentioned Bradley along with Twins hurler Simeon Woods-Richardson offer some hope for the starting rotation as soon as the second half of this year.
Biggest question mark: Role players. The Sox roster has a bit of a "stars and scrubs" strategy to it with some positions (C, OF, mid rotation P and back of bullpen) being filled with bounceback candidates or guys fighting to establish themselves in a role. Which of these guys end up panning out and joining the Sox' star players in contributing will go a long way to determining how their season goes.
Arrow Up/Down? Down. The White Sox should remain a tough matchup from week to week but I see them falling just a little short of their performance from last year as other teams have caught up and a full cadre of competitive owners are going to tighten up the standings this year.
Twins
'22 Finish: 56 W, 4th in AL Central, Missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 3rd in AL Central
Offseason Acquisition: OF Cedric Mullins. Mullins didn't quite replicate his 30/30 campaign from two years ago but remains a power/speed threat and across the board contributor. Picked up in a trade with the Red Sox this offseason that was facilitated by Mullins' salary and lack of remaining ARB years, this could be a great value pickup for Minnesota, he instantly makes this lineup dangerous.
Breakout/Sleeper candidate: 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Strand looks like he will get a shot to open the season in the lineup thanks to an injury to Joey Votto. If he runs with it he might never leave with the poor defending Spencer Steer currently manning 3B and the versatile Wil Myers his other competition. a 4th round pick in '21 out of Oklahoma State he has crushed opposing pitching at every stop and his power should play very well at the homer friendly Great American Ballpark.
State of the Farm system: Very good. Even after graduating Gunnar Henderson and Royce Lewis this system still boasts some high impact talent, especially among OFs with Robert Hassell, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Alex Ramirez and Gavin Cross headlining. It's a little thinner on the pitching side, but by no means barren as Kumar Rocker, Brandon WIlliamson and few home grown Twins arms offer plenty of hope for the future.
Biggest question mark: SP. The lineup here looks strong and deep, but the rotation lacks front end talent. A good collection of mid-rotation arms and guys you can hope for rebounds/steps forward but ultimately I think it is going to be a struggle to compete on the pitching side of things from week to week.
Arrow up/down? Up. The Twins are going to be feisty this year and I debated between projecting them 2nd or 3rd in this division. Ultimately the bats are still young and the SP a little bit iffy so the Twins seem like they are still a year away from truly being dangerous. I think the Twins and Guardians both are going to make life in the Central very hard for the Royals in the coming years.
Royals
'22 Finish 123 W, AL Central Winner, League Champions!
'23 Prediction: 2nd Place AL Central
Offseason Acquisition: Byron Buxton. Buxton remains one of the highest risk and highest reward players in the league. Having only passed 400 PA once so far in his 6 year career his 162 game averages are still 27HR, 21 SB & 87 R. If he can manage a full season of production he could be a huge addition to the League Champs' already impressive lineup. Free agent acquisition Robbie Ray gets an honorable mention here as he was able to be acquired for a reasonable price after a small setback from his 2021 Cy Young campaign, but his peripherals were still in line and he is a big boost to the Royals rotation.
Breakout/Sleeper: Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki had a solid, if unspectacular debut season stateside last season. 14 HR and a 116WRC+ aren't bad but a little bit more was expected from him. He hit the ball hard a decent amount, but on the ground a little too much. With a years experience under his belt I think he can make some adjustments, get the ball in the air a little more and cross the 20 HR level while still providing a solid AVG
State of the Farm system: Pretty barren. The Royals have been one of the more aggressive teams dealing from their prospects in order to bolster the big league roster and it obviously paid off with a league title last year. That being said, there are a few prospects of note here including Twins OF Emmanuel Rodriguez, and recent acquisitions Adael Amador and Jhonkensy Noel. Noah Cameron is the highest ranked homegrown prospect still on the roster. It will be interesting to see what the Royals do in the coming years if they decide to pivot to a rebuild when some of their veterans retire or if they continue to utilize free agency and deal away draft picks to field a winner.
Biggest question mark: SS. Elvis Andrus was signed in free agency and it looks like he will get first crack at the 2B job with the White Sox but if he stumbles out of the gate there are players ready to step in and take those ABs and the Royals don't currently have anyone else with SS eligibility on the roster.
Arrow up/down?: Down. Nowhere to go but down after winning a title. The Royals are still one of the best teams in the league and have an owner that is not afraid to make moves but right now there does not look to be enough depth to repeat as champion. I expect them to be in the mix, but it would take some wheeling and dealing to be our first repeat champion.
Guardians
'22 Finish: 100 W, 2nd in AL Central, Lost in Wildcard round
'23 Prediction: AL Central Winner
Offseason Acquisition: 3B Austin Riley. The Guardians used what they had, SP depth and cap space, to bring in a big bat in Riley to handle the hot corner. Riley is a four category contributor at a thin position and should anchor a Cleveland lineup that has a chance to be among the league's best.
Breakout/Sleeper: MJ Melendez. Melendez managed 18 HR last year in 460 PA with a meager .313 OBP but enters this year with that experience under his belt along with a more defined role that should see him DHing most days and hitting near the top of the lineup. Between AA and AAA in 2021 he swatted 41 homers so the power is certainly legit, but he also showed a %14 walk rate hinting that there is better plate discipline here than he showed last year.
State of the farm system: The Guardians have largely held on to their systems products and the success that the IRL team has had developing pitchers has helped the Mibble Guardians immensely. With 3/4 of its top big league starters being homegrown and reinforcements on the way with Espino, Bibee, Morris, and Hankins moving up the ladder. There is plenty of ammo here if the Guards need to swing some deals down the stretch.
Biggest question mark: OF. Melendez still qualifies at C, so he is probably best deployed there leaving Mitch Haniger in Right, Alek Thomas in Center and Lourdes Gurriel in LF without a lot of depth behind them. If I were running this team I would be looking to deal from my pitching depth to make an improvement to the OF. Another bullpen arm wouldn't hurt either but these are small bitpicks with a very good team.
Arrow up/down? Up. Solid moves in addition to some patience with prospects have set the Guardians up to compete for the next few years. The window is opening now.
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NL Central
St Louis Cardinals
'22 Finish: 61 W, 5th in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 5th in division
Offseason Acquisition: Josiah Gray. Padres GM (Bill) said it best in November: "I'm really weirded out that the current mlber is going to the Cardinals in this trade." But that move sets the tone for the 2023 outlook for St Louis, which is potentially the start of their climb up the NL Central ladder.
Breakout/Sleeper: The homer in me would love to talk about Triston Casas. You could say Jordan Walker, but there is plenty of exuberant gushing about him already. Even though either of those may turn out to be the correct answer, let's go with Nolan Gorman. This guy just needs ABs to put his .226/.300/.421 debut in the rear view, and with Pujols out of the way he should be able to find more despite an ever crowded, talented MLB roster. Don't forget he was a consensus top 50ish or better prospect climbing every year from 2019 through 2022.
State of the Farm: Don't ask Bert, he'll be modest. Stacked. Among the best in Mibble. Plenty of big names and tons of lottery tickets. This to go with some of their recent and imminent graduates, and the rest of the National League should keep an eye on what is brewing in St Louis - and I don't mean at the Anheuser-Busch factory south of the stadium.
Biggest Question Mark: Pitching. The Cards need some guys to take a step forward in 2023 if they are going to make serious noise. The Gray trade was a good first move in that respect, but likely a few more pieces will be needed in the next year or two as the lineup fills out with budding stars.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. In the NL East they would be middle of the pack, and the NL West a potential contender. In the NL Central, they need several things to go right and some help to make headway up the standings. Don't be surprised to see a 2022 MLB Orioles-like rise though (but similar problem - too many teams ahead of them).
Chicago Cubs
'22 Finish: 91 W, 4th in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 4th in division
Offseason Acquisition: The front office did a lot of wheeling and dealing on the trade market this winter - they traded so much they acquired perhaps the greatest pitcher of this generation and then traded him a short time later. Perhaps the most significant acquisition that stuck was Tim Anderson. Management noted at the time of the deal how his salary may be cheaper than what the cost would have been in the FA market this winter, and the way everyone was spending $ like Lil Wayne, this looks like a potentially shrewd move at the moment for a .300 hitter.
Breakout/Sleeper: James Outman appears likely to get significant CF playing time in LA, and a solid showing would go a long way toward helping the Mibble Cubs. Outman nearly hit .300/.400/.600 across AA and AAA last year, with nearly identical stats across roughly 60 games apiece (and even an uptick in power in AAA). His 2023 spring training line was about the same. Don't underestimate the former 7th round pick.
State of the Farm: It looked better back in September than it does now. Outman, who was acquired during the offseason, is the headliner and about to graduate from prospect status. Truthfully the system could use some new pieces, but clearly the objective is to win now.
Biggest Question Mark: Depth. The Cubs found themselves on the wrong side of several Opening Day roster decisions, so having a complete active lineup to start the season may be a challenge. On the pitching side they may struggle to field a full bullpen and will have to bank on their strong starting pitching being healthy and reliable in 2023.
Arrow Up/Down: Neutral. Plenty of star power here to chase a playoff spot, but the win total does not seem likely to change much in either direction. They'll be in the mix deep into the summer, assuming good health.
Pittsburgh Pirates
'22 Finish: 107 W, 2nd in division; lost in Divisional round
'23 Prediction: 3rd in division
Offseason Acquisition: WIth trade rumblings around JT Realmuto leaking to the press, it probably should come as no surprise that the Pirates used the second-to-last round of free agency to win the bidding for Salvador Perez. Some might grimace at $9 per year for a catcher, but Perez - turning 33 in May - is getting paid $64M IRL over the next three seasons to play catcher for a small market club.
Breakout/Sleeper: No particular sleeper candidates stick out on the Pirates roster, so let's go with a breakout for Bobby Witt Jr. He had a .995 OPS and only struck out 3 times in the small 26-AB sample this spring. I have a hunch that we can see the .254/.294/.428 and 20 HR debut in 2022 - which included a second half fade to a sub-.700 OPS - leap towards something like .280/.320/.500 and 30+ HR in 2023 and make some noise in the MVP conversation.
State of the Farm: Trading away Henry Davis and Nick Gonzales may sting down the line, but the veterans received will play significant roles in 2023 for Pittsburgh (Cron and bullpen help). We should not forget about the trade of Arozarena for 2022 prospect rocket Jackson Chourio. There is speculation he might even sniff The Show in 2023 himself. With a mega prospect like Chourio on the farm and some other solid pieces, hard to complain but there is probably some work to do to restock the system at some point.
Biggest Question Mark: Pitching. A few changes on the hitting side, but their active roster has one SP at the moment - and that one SP will be on the IL on Opening Day. The bullpen has quality pieces, but little depth if any injuries crop up.
Arrow Up/Down: Down a bit. You can't lose Rafael Devers and a majority of your rotation and expect to maintain the same level of success. The lineup however is good enough to remain in playoff contention.
Cincinnati Reds
'22 Finish: 126 W, 1st in division; lost in NLCS
'23 Prediction: 2nd in division
Offseason Acquisition: Some various smaller free agent signings, and of the few trades executed this offseason, their most notable acquisition may be *checks notes* Bailey Falter of the Phillies. But it's not like the Reds, fresh off 126 wins and falling one step shy of playing in the World Series, are hurting for star talent. They return most of last year's roster with the sizable departures of Luis Castillo and Carlos Rodon.
Breakout/Sleeper: Some guy named Shohei... okay, fine, don't believe me. You could talk Falter here if you believe he will stick in the rotation for most of the season. Instead I will highlight Alexis Diaz, who may establish himself as one of the premier closers in the game in 2023 - especially if the young MLB Reds can stack enough wins together to get him more save opps. With only 10 saves and playing for a rebuilding MLB squad, his debut season in 2022 may have gone a bit under the radar; expect that to change.
State of the Farm: Farm? What farm? What is a farm? It is all about now and hopefully cashing in on a stacked lineup with multiple future HOFers before they hit free agency.
Biggest Question Mark: How significant will losing Castillo and Rodon be? The Cincinnati rotation is arguably the deepest in Mibble and may need to rely upon quantity over quality some weeks to wear down the opponents, a little moreso than they had to in 2022.
Arrow Up/Down: Down, but let's not pretend that means they aren't a major contender - the Reds won 126 games in 2022, so there's bound to be at least a little pullback.
Milwaukee Brewers
'22 Finish: 99 W, 3rd in division; lost in Divisional round
'23 Prediction: 1st in division
Offseason Acquisition: Edwin Diaz, Gio Urshela, Paul Goldschmidt who later became Jose Abreu, Yordan Alvarez, Jordan Romano, 2023 spring standout Yusei Kikuchi, Tyler Stephenson. That's a good looking list that did not come cheap via the trade market, not to mention Nate Eovaldi via free agency and a smattering of new supporting cast members.
Breakout/Sleeper: Kikuchi has impressed in prior springs, but the Mibble Brewers and the MLB Blue Jays certainly hope his performance the past month is a sign of a bounceback campaign coming up.
State of the Farm: Depleted after the offseason trades, but like the Reds - you can't complain about the active roster. You just hope the near term payoff comes through. Plenty of Mibble owners would trade rosters with the Brewers in a heartbeat.
Biggest Question Mark: It isn't about the Brewers themselves; it's about their division. The Brewers are plenty deep with talent, but the NL Central remains loaded, and two teams finished ahead of Milwaukee in 2022. Will the Pirates and Reds fall off just enough for the Brewers to surpass them for their second division title?
Arrow Up/Down: Up. The return of Bill to the Milwaukee front office looks like a boon to their chances especially in the near term. There weren't necessarily major gaps on the roster when he took over last summer during the wild card chase, but he has filled whatever holes may have existed these last few months. We are about to find out if it is enough to contend for a World Series title.
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AL Central
Tigers
'22 Finish: 58 W, 5th in AL Central
'23 Projection: 5th in AL Central
Offseason Acquisition: James Kaprielian. Not a lot to choose from as the Tigers sat out much of free agency waiting for their young players to mature before committing cap space. They did add a solid SP via trade in picking up James Kaprielian from the Braves. Pitching in Oakland should give Kap both plenty of leeway to claim a job and, with its spacious dimensions, allow him some luck with FB/HR ratios. This is the kind of sneaky P that often becomes a valuable trade chip in mid season.
Breakout/ Sleeper: Luis Patino. Prospect Du Jour a few years ago Patino was a hot commodity when he was dealt from San Diego to Tampa Bay as part of the Blake Snell deal. Multiple arm injuries have followed and hampered his progress since, but he looks to be healthy once again and after starting the year in AAA he could shake off the rust and deliver the kind of results everyone expected from him a few years ago. Patino was the Tigers other big offseason pickup and he could prove to be a good one.
State of the Farm: Most of the higher end talent has graduated to the big league club, but there is still a good amount of meat left on the bone here. Nick Yorke, Maikel Garcia and Jeremiah Jackson offer upside from the IF while Brennan Davis and Heliot Ramos headline the OF. The pitching is slightly thin, but the Tigers have some home grown arms in the system with potential. A couple of hits from this group added to the lineup along with a good amount of cap space leave the Tigers in a good position going forward to be competitive in short order.
Biggest question mark: Just how much will everyone develop? Corbin Carroll seems like a sure thing but there is some question as to how close to their ceilings Torkleson and Greene will get. There is also some upside with the SP Manning, Mize and Skubal but the clock is already ticking on those guys. This will be a big development year for the Tigers that will determine a lot of moves going forward.
Arrow up/down? Up. There is a lot of young talent here and more on the way from the farm. This division is going to be a bloodbath in the coming years as all of these teams seem poised to compete in the near future. Once the Tigers decide their window is opening and they decide to bolster the roster via free agency they are going to be a force.
White Sox
'22 Finish: 91 W, 3rd in AL Central missed playoffs
'23 prediction: 4th in AL Central
Offseason acquisition: Jose Berrios. Jose had a less than stellar first full season in Toronto after a midseason trade in 2021 but he is still on the right side of 30 and with a little luck he should rebound to his previous well above average ways. This could look like a very smart acquisition at season's end.
Breakout/Sleeper: OF Kyle Lewis. Lewis has lost a little shine since his days as the AL ROY in the shortened 2020 season, but offers an intriguing blend of power, speed and on base ability when everything is going good. He'll likely start the year on the short side of a platoon, but could end up beating out Thomas or Gurriel for ABs fairly quickly if his hot bat in Spring Training carries over when the games start to count. Rays SP Taj Bradley is the other option here for a breakout, but I think they will be a little cautious with him and he ends up spending most of 2023 in AAA.
State of the Farm system: A little thin due mostly to the parent clubs inability to draft and develop. The previously mentioned Bradley along with Twins hurler Simeon Woods-Richardson offer some hope for the starting rotation as soon as the second half of this year.
Biggest question mark: Role players. The Sox roster has a bit of a "stars and scrubs" strategy to it with some positions (C, OF, mid rotation P and back of bullpen) being filled with bounceback candidates or guys fighting to establish themselves in a role. Which of these guys end up panning out and joining the Sox' star players in contributing will go a long way to determining how their season goes.
Arrow Up/Down? Down. The White Sox should remain a tough matchup from week to week but I see them falling just a little short of their performance from last year as other teams have caught up and a full cadre of competitive owners are going to tighten up the standings this year.
Twins
'22 Finish: 56 W, 4th in AL Central, Missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 3rd in AL Central
Offseason Acquisition: OF Cedric Mullins. Mullins didn't quite replicate his 30/30 campaign from two years ago but remains a power/speed threat and across the board contributor. Picked up in a trade with the Red Sox this offseason that was facilitated by Mullins' salary and lack of remaining ARB years, this could be a great value pickup for Minnesota, he instantly makes this lineup dangerous.
Breakout/Sleeper candidate: 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Strand looks like he will get a shot to open the season in the lineup thanks to an injury to Joey Votto. If he runs with it he might never leave with the poor defending Spencer Steer currently manning 3B and the versatile Wil Myers his other competition. a 4th round pick in '21 out of Oklahoma State he has crushed opposing pitching at every stop and his power should play very well at the homer friendly Great American Ballpark.
State of the Farm system: Very good. Even after graduating Gunnar Henderson and Royce Lewis this system still boasts some high impact talent, especially among OFs with Robert Hassell, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Alex Ramirez and Gavin Cross headlining. It's a little thinner on the pitching side, but by no means barren as Kumar Rocker, Brandon WIlliamson and few home grown Twins arms offer plenty of hope for the future.
Biggest question mark: SP. The lineup here looks strong and deep, but the rotation lacks front end talent. A good collection of mid-rotation arms and guys you can hope for rebounds/steps forward but ultimately I think it is going to be a struggle to compete on the pitching side of things from week to week.
Arrow up/down? Up. The Twins are going to be feisty this year and I debated between projecting them 2nd or 3rd in this division. Ultimately the bats are still young and the SP a little bit iffy so the Twins seem like they are still a year away from truly being dangerous. I think the Twins and Guardians both are going to make life in the Central very hard for the Royals in the coming years.
Royals
'22 Finish 123 W, AL Central Winner, League Champions!
'23 Prediction: 2nd Place AL Central
Offseason Acquisition: Byron Buxton. Buxton remains one of the highest risk and highest reward players in the league. Having only passed 400 PA once so far in his 6 year career his 162 game averages are still 27HR, 21 SB & 87 R. If he can manage a full season of production he could be a huge addition to the League Champs' already impressive lineup. Free agent acquisition Robbie Ray gets an honorable mention here as he was able to be acquired for a reasonable price after a small setback from his 2021 Cy Young campaign, but his peripherals were still in line and he is a big boost to the Royals rotation.
Breakout/Sleeper: Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki had a solid, if unspectacular debut season stateside last season. 14 HR and a 116WRC+ aren't bad but a little bit more was expected from him. He hit the ball hard a decent amount, but on the ground a little too much. With a years experience under his belt I think he can make some adjustments, get the ball in the air a little more and cross the 20 HR level while still providing a solid AVG
State of the Farm system: Pretty barren. The Royals have been one of the more aggressive teams dealing from their prospects in order to bolster the big league roster and it obviously paid off with a league title last year. That being said, there are a few prospects of note here including Twins OF Emmanuel Rodriguez, and recent acquisitions Adael Amador and Jhonkensy Noel. Noah Cameron is the highest ranked homegrown prospect still on the roster. It will be interesting to see what the Royals do in the coming years if they decide to pivot to a rebuild when some of their veterans retire or if they continue to utilize free agency and deal away draft picks to field a winner.
Biggest question mark: SS. Elvis Andrus was signed in free agency and it looks like he will get first crack at the 2B job with the White Sox but if he stumbles out of the gate there are players ready to step in and take those ABs and the Royals don't currently have anyone else with SS eligibility on the roster.
Arrow up/down?: Down. Nowhere to go but down after winning a title. The Royals are still one of the best teams in the league and have an owner that is not afraid to make moves but right now there does not look to be enough depth to repeat as champion. I expect them to be in the mix, but it would take some wheeling and dealing to be our first repeat champion.
Guardians
'22 Finish: 100 W, 2nd in AL Central, Lost in Wildcard round
'23 Prediction: AL Central Winner
Offseason Acquisition: 3B Austin Riley. The Guardians used what they had, SP depth and cap space, to bring in a big bat in Riley to handle the hot corner. Riley is a four category contributor at a thin position and should anchor a Cleveland lineup that has a chance to be among the league's best.
Breakout/Sleeper: MJ Melendez. Melendez managed 18 HR last year in 460 PA with a meager .313 OBP but enters this year with that experience under his belt along with a more defined role that should see him DHing most days and hitting near the top of the lineup. Between AA and AAA in 2021 he swatted 41 homers so the power is certainly legit, but he also showed a %14 walk rate hinting that there is better plate discipline here than he showed last year.
State of the farm system: The Guardians have largely held on to their systems products and the success that the IRL team has had developing pitchers has helped the Mibble Guardians immensely. With 3/4 of its top big league starters being homegrown and reinforcements on the way with Espino, Bibee, Morris, and Hankins moving up the ladder. There is plenty of ammo here if the Guards need to swing some deals down the stretch.
Biggest question mark: OF. Melendez still qualifies at C, so he is probably best deployed there leaving Mitch Haniger in Right, Alek Thomas in Center and Lourdes Gurriel in LF without a lot of depth behind them. If I were running this team I would be looking to deal from my pitching depth to make an improvement to the OF. Another bullpen arm wouldn't hurt either but these are small bitpicks with a very good team.
Arrow up/down? Up. Solid moves in addition to some patience with prospects have set the Guardians up to compete for the next few years. The window is opening now.
