2023 Season Preview: The West
Mar 28, 2023 9:35:51 GMT -5
Rangers GM (Stephen), St. Louis GM (Bert), and 12 more like this
Post by Red Sox GM (Nick) on Mar 28, 2023 9:35:51 GMT -5
With 2023 Opening Day less than 72 hours away (!!!), Washington Nationals GM (Alex) and I take you from coast to coast to break down all 30 Mibble teams, division by division. Then we'll wrap up with playoff predictions. Will the Royals repeat? Do the Braves avenge their nail biting loss? Who missed the playoffs in 2022 but is poised to get there in 2023? Is your farm system less than adequate? Read on to find out, and please don't hesitate to chime in with your thoughts.
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NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
'22 Finish: 74 W, 3rd in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 5th in division
Offseason Acquisition: Lots of potential options for the future. After starting 2022 as a NL West contender, the front office hit the reset button. The offseason saw some more veterans get shipped elsewhere along with a few prospects, including James Outman (could be an interesting trade to look back on). Among other notable names, Jeferson Quero stands out as the potential backstop of the future for the Mibble Dodgers.
Breakout/Sleeper: Feels like cheating here, but let's go with Miguel Vargas. A third baseman in the minors last year, he is expected to be the Opening Day second baseman in Los Angeles. Vargas has been a .300/.380/.480 hitter at minimum every year since joining the Dodgers system, not to mention speed and power. There is a lot to like here including arb control through 2028.
State of the Farm: Good and getting deeper with the flurry of rebuilding trades over the past nine months. Over 100 non-Dodgers prospects are on the payroll, including a laundry list of SS (Ronny Mauricio and Edwin Arroyo among others). In addition many of the homegrown prospects remain under control (Cartaya, Busch, Pages, Miller, Stone).
Biggest Question Mark: Filling out the lineup card for 2023. Franco, deGrom, and Vargas could do enough some weeks to be a nuisance, but hard to envision this year's squad being more than that.
Arrow Up/Down: Neutral. Easy to say "down" based on last year's win total in a relatively weak division and having few remaining components of a competitive active roster. However, there are enough nice pieces to build around and cap flexibility with eyes on 2024 and beyond.
Arizona Diamondbacks
'22 Finish: 59 W, 5th in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 4th in division
Offseason Acquisition: Tons of movement via trade and free agency. Out went Francisco Lindor's mega-salary, in came Christian Yelich's comparatively smaller salary. Nimmo, Rodon, and Montgomery were the biggest gets in free agency in addition to numerous lower $ deals that might pan out well (i.e. Grossman).
Breakout/Sleeper: Oscar Colas. Likely to be the regular in RF on the South Side, Colas comes with a fair amount of hype. With a general lack of star power on the offensive side of the roster, one of Mo's earliest acquisitions could be a key piece for the rest of the decade for the Dbacks.
State of the Farm: Solid. The prior regime did not necessarily leave the cupboard bare, but fans probably would have liked a little more to work with for a rebuild. Can't scoff at guys like Jordan Lawlar, Brandon Pfaadt, and 2022 draftee Druw Jones though.
Biggest Question Mark: Will the 2023 lineup get enough production to be competitive? Some might have picked Rodon's health here, but it's the quality of the depth on the active roster that will determine how far up the standings Arizona can push this summer.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. The 2023 Opening Day roster on paper certainly looks better than the 2022 iteration. Continued shrewd moves in the FA and trade markets will be important to accelerating the Arizona timeline, especially while the NL West lacks an obvious 100-win candidate.
San Francisco Giants
'22 Finish: 87 W, 1st in division; lost in Wild Card round
'23 Prediction: 3rd in division
Offseason Acquisition: With pitching in good shape, the biggest pieces added were on the hitting side. The Giants are rolling the dice on bounceback campaigns from 1B Jared Walsh and 3B Anthony Rendon to fill out the lineup. If those two perform well (and play most of the year), the Giants have a good shot at defending their division title. But if not, the San Francisco offense might not be enough to fend off the other NL West contenders.
Breakout/Sleeper: David Villar. Giants fans can only hope that Joey Bart will finally start to fulfill his draft potential in 2023. However, a breakout year from David Villar might distract them. A 1.022 OPS at AAA in 366 PA last year and reasonably holding his own in a 52-game debut for the parent club suggest they might have something brewing at third base.
State of the Farm: Decent but maybe some work to do. Some recent grads from the prospect ranks (Villar, Ashcraft, etc.) have taken some of the edge off, and the Mibble Giants are not sitting on a pile of blue chippers like other organizations. Notable names include Addison Barger, Luis Matos, and Kyle Harrison.
Biggest Question Mark: The offense. The pitching is pretty good (Zac Gallen, Kevin Gausman, and a solid 'pen), but the offense feels risky and will need to prove itself for the Giants to repeat.
Arrow Up/Down: Down. Just feels a step back from how they looked in 2022, in part because their division mates generally improved over the winter. Frame of reference is important.
San Diego Padres
'22 Finish: 66 W, 4th in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 2nd in division
Offseason Acquisition: Playing loose with the definition, Fernando Tatis, Jr. returning after a lost season (injuries, PEDs) will be a tremendous boost come late April in a loaded real-life Padres lineup. In Mibble, he'll find a number of new faces around him since the last time he was active, including this pundit's personal favorite player to watch - El Mago.
Breakout/Sleeper: He might be starting the season in the minors, but the Braves are kidding themselves if they think they are better off with Orlando Arcia and his below-average bat at SS than handing the keys over to Vaughn Grissom. In fairness he has some question marks in the field, no doubt. But it may only be a month or perhaps weeks until we see Grissom recalled and contribute.
State of the Farm: Overall the San Diego farm is middle of the pack, but they have two absolute studs in Francisco Alvarez and the rising James Wood that would improve even the best Mibble systems. Don't sleep on Jared Shuster either, who had a nice spring and earned himself at least a temporary MLB rotation spot to begin 2023.
Biggest Question Mark: Who's playing first? If the Padres can find a serviceable solution there, don't be surprised to see them in the NL West hunt in July. There is enough talent on this roster to make a run at the division title despite appearing in a bit of a transition / retool phase.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. Might be too high on the Padres slotting them ahead of the reigning division champs even with some soft spots on the active roster. The star power and comparative roster balance should keep San Diego in the mix barring further retooling.
Colorado Rockies
'22 Finish: 87 W, 2nd in division; missed playoffs / consolation bracket finalist
'23 Prediction: 1st in division
Offseason Acquisition: New ownership. The roster is not remarkably different from six months ago, outside of some new faces restocking the bullpen including trade acquisition Scott Barlow. Even without significant acquisitions, the Rockies are the most complete team in the NL West on paper. Good health and even some moderate bouncebacks from the likes of Nick Castellanos and others will make Mike look great in his Mibble debut season.
Breakout/Sleeper: A lot of relatively established players and stars on the active roster, so let's go with homegrown Ezequiel Tovar taking over at short in Denver. A consensus top-25 prospect this spring, Tovar will have plenty of opportunity in 2023 to lock down a starting role for years to come. He only spent five games at AAA, but in just 66 games at AA in 2022, Tovar hit .318/.386/.546 with 13 HR and 17 SB. Can't hurt to play half your games at Coors as a rookie either.
State of the Farm: With Tovar likely graduating in a month, the farm needs some love moving forward. But the fans won't complain for now with a formidable lineup and pitching staff that should be in contention in the NL West for at least the next couple of years. That should buy some time to allow the real-life Rockies to develop its recent picks and IFAs.
Biggest Question Mark: Health. If the Rockies are overall healthy for most of the season - a reasonable question with some aging star pitchers (Kershaw) and walking injury risk Eloy Jimenez - they just need to take care of business on the field and hope the most extreme favorable outcomes for their division opponents do not come to fruition in 2023.
Arrow Up/Down: Neutral. That is not a bad thing. The Rockies barely lost the division to the Giants in 2022. Don't be surprised if new management turns out to be enough to lead this team into September baseball.
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AL West
A's
'22 Finish: 36 W 5th in AL West, Missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 5th place AL West
Offseason Acquisition: Rafael Devers.The A's spent heavy to wrestle Devers away from the Pirates who held the 20% discount on resigning him. This is an aggressive move from a rebuilding team, but absolutely the kind of guy you blow the bank for. 26 Years old, one of the top options at his position, this is someone you can build around. Honorable mention: Andrew Benintendi. Bennie hasn't quite lived up to the promise of his prospect days but he has become a darn good big league hitter and is still in his prime. The power was down a bit last year but if he can rebound back to the 15-20 HR range he showed early in his career he could do some damage in a deep White Sox lineup. Acquiring a player like Benintendi on a reasonable contract without sacrificing anything is a great move for a team like the A's, He is still young enough to be productive when the A's young guys are coming up or they can deal him to a contender this summer for more future assets.
Breakout/Sleeper: JP Sears. Drafted by the Mariners as a VERY high K reliever, Sears was tried out as a SP before being traded to Oakland and the early results have been good. The K's have predictably come down but the control remains pretty good and if he can get a little more experience and development with his breaking stuff he could end up a very solid SP.
State of the farm system: I've never been a huge fan of the A's draft/development team so that hampers my view of some of the homegrown talent here, but our A's management seems to have very nice taste in prospects having added SP Eury Perez and Logan T Allen to A's farmhand Tyler Soderstrom. Guys like Noah Miller, Bryan Acuna, and Luis Morales offer some development hope for the future.
Biggest question mark: OF. Benintendi is the only OF that's a lock for ABs at this point in the season, as JBJ is likely due for a bench spot and Siani has lots of competition for ABs in Cinci. The best bet for depth here might come from within, with whoever the A's call up from the farm to fill spots throughout the year. Gotta hope for a find here.
Arrow up/down?: Up. Up as in "nowhere to go but". I think this is a much improved team from last year, and headed in the right direction overall, so while I think they will improve over last year's record, a fifth place finish in the AL West still seems likely.
Astros
'22 Finish: 85 W 3rd in AL West, missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 4th place AL West
Offseason Acquisition: 1B Josh Bell. Bell has always been a bit of a streaky player, seeing his OPS drop nearly 300 points after a mid-season trade from Washington to San Diego. But I have a feeling that with a settled new contract and a nice ballpark to hit in in Cleveland, Bell is going to be a nice addition to the Astros lineup.
Breakout/Sleeper: The obvious pick here is for a full on Breakout from Hunter Brown. He needs to stay healthy all season but it looks like his breaking stuff is going to be plenty good to keep him in the rotation and fantasy relevant. Former international signing Pedro Leon is also a name to keep in mind as he has an intriguing blend of power and speed and can play on the dirt or in the grass making him a likely call up in the event of an injury to the big league club.
State of the farm system: The Astros are another team that likes to keep most of the talent in the real life system so many of their best are here, but when you have as much success as the Astros do they are usually drafting long after the highest impact talent has been picked through. Yanier Diaz and Drew Gilbert headline the class beyond Hunter Brown.
Biggest question mark: Pitching. The lineup in Houston is strong but, currently, the starting rotation only boasts one name, the aforementioned Brown. Injury riddled former top prospect Forrest Whitley looked healthy enough in spring ball this year that you can hope he will debut this year and could be a big shot in the arm to this Astros team if he is able to display some of the promise that made him a top-100 prospect. The Astros though are great at developing pitching so it is entirely possible that some middling names in their system make big strides and become solid big leaguers.
Arrow up/down?: Down. The Astros performed pretty well last year but a lack of depth at the big league level, not enough cap space to address those needs and improvements from division rivals in LAA and OAK probably mean a slightly worse finish than last year. A year of development from some of their young players and several big contracts expiring at the end of '23 could poise the 'Stros for a big bounce back in 2024.
Angels
'22 Finish: 57 W 4th in AL West, Missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 3rd place AL West
Offseason Acquisition: Ozzie Albies. The Angels were not messing around in Free Agency this year. Using the $16.1 saved from re-signing Mike Trout to a more team friendly deal this offseason and dipping into the piggy bank for another $10.4 the Halos added Albies to handle the keystone. After injuries limited him to only 269 PA appearances last year the still only 26 year old looks to be healthy and dangerous this year. He has his sights set on a 30/30 season and could prove to be worth every bit of that contract.
Breakout/Sleeper: Mike Soroka. Already in his 5th contract year and largely forgotten as a fantasy asset it is easy to forget that Soroka is only 25 years old. Owner of a MLB career 2.86 career ERA he has been excellent on the very rare occasion that he is healthy and pitching. Looking to throw his first big league pitch since 2020 his return to the mound could provide a big lift to this Angels team.
State of the farm system: Considering how bad the IRL Angels have been at drafting/developing this system is surprisingly good. Some higher end impact talent in Noelvi Marte, and Jackson Merrill on the offensive side and Max Meyer, Gavin Williams, and Asa Lacy on the pitching side. Not to mention the recently graduated Gabriel Moreno and Reid Detmers.
Biggest question mark: Will the prospects catch up to the free agents? There is a mixed strategy going on here, with some high impact kids on the farm that will bolster the future but also some high dollar veteran free agents to make the current team competitive. Neither a full rebuild nor a pedal to the floor championship run, it will be interesting to see if the timing all comes together with the youngsters contributing before the vets age out or leave as salary cap casualties.
Arrow up/down?: Up. I'm not sure I'm ready to pick the Angels to make the playoffs quite yet, but there is enough talent here that some middling prospects could be dealt to help bolster the current team without hurting the future too much. This is a team on the way up, rebuilding on the fly. I think division titles are in the near future, but probably not this year. Baby steps.
Mariners
'22 Finish: 119 W Division Winner! Loss in ALCS
'23 Prediction: 2nd in AL West
Offseason Acquisition: Martin Perez Rangers SP. Coming off of a breakout age 31 season that showed Perez post a 2.89 ERA, 1.25 WHip and a career best 7.7 K/9 to go along with 12 W The MAriners were able to pry Perez away from the Rangers despite a %30 hometown discount on a surprisingly reasonable 2 year $5.0 contract. While some projections are skeptical of the gains made last year I don't see anything in the peripherals that suggest Perez can't be a solid rotation piece and 3 category contributor that the M's were able to add without sacrificing anything other than a little bit of cap space.
Breakout/Sleeper: Christian Arroyo Red Sox 2B. Arroyo is a former 1st round pick and fairly well thought of prospect who never quite got full time run to show what he could do. Injuries prevented him from getting that opportunity fully again last year. Logging a career best 300 PA, Arroyo managed a 102 wRC+ while dramatically reducing his K rate. With the injury to Trevor Story opening up everyday ABs at 2B and the new baserunning rules Arroyo could post double digit HRs and SBs if all goes well and if the gains he made in contact last year hold up he could find himself near the top of the lineup as well, boosting his roto value further.
State of the Farm system: The M's have been relatively conservative with their farm system, opting to hold on to most of the home grown talent in the system and use capital to address the MLB roster rather than prospects. They dealt away C prospect Harry Ford, but were able to replace him with Pirates backstop Henry Davis. A few high upside international signings and the realf life clubs ability to develop pitching help to keep this system stocked.
Biggest Question mark: Depth. The Mariners can run out a solid lineup most days, they have a very good top 3 rotation and two releif aces with Helsley and Duran. Jose Quintana is already injured and there isn't much multi-position eligibility among the hitters here to help cover off days. A couple of lasting injuries or surprise ineffectiveness could really put a strain on this team.
Arrow up/Down?: Neutral. I fully expect Seattle to compete for a division title and make a playoff run again this year. The depth issues prevent me from making them a pick to win it all, but with some in-season moves or production from surprise places could definitely put them near the top.
Texas Rangers
'22 Finish: 115 W 2nd in AL West, Loss in ALDS
'23 Prediction: 1st place AL West
Offseason Acquisition: Starting pitching. The Rangers rebuilt their rotation with FA addition Luis Castillo as well as trade acquisitions Justin Verlander, Mike Clevinger, and Joey Luchessi. That's a solid top 4, all brought in in one offseason.
Breakout/Sleeper: Oniel Cruz, Vinnie Pasquantino and Daulton Varsho all have the capacity to truly breakout this year, but they are boring picks as they all have some pedigree of note. I will focus on a minor sleeper pick here, Phillies 1B Darrick Hall. With the unfortunate injury to Rhys Hoskins likely keeping him out all year, Hall's path to ABs is much clearer. He has fairly substantial platoon splits that will probably keep him on the bench against most lefties but he can do enough damage against RHP to make it worthwhile. His K rate will need to come down from the %30 number he posted last year, but he showed enough of an eye in the minors that I think that can happen and there is 30+ HR power in his bat if his OBP can sustain a high enough rate to keep him in the lineup.
State of the Farm system: The Rangers have always liked to trade and much of the competitive roster they currently sport was acquired by dealing from the system. That being said there is some real high end talent in a system lacking a little bit of depth. Grayson Rodriguez and Ricky Tiedmann are top flight arms nearly ready to contribute in MLB and Harry Ford and Edouard Julien are intriguing bats to follow.
Biggest question mark: Bullpen. There are guys here in positions that should garner some holds, but it will require some diligence swapping guys in and out as there is a lack of truly set it and forget it stalwarts in the pen. But I have a feeling there may be some new names here before the trade deadline comes around.
Arrow up/down?: Up. A second place finish and 2nd round playoff exit displayed a solid performance last year, but there is so much depth here that I would be surprised if the Rangers didn't win the West this year and end up with a higher playoff seeding this go around. They are a threat to be our first ever two-time champion.
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NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
'22 Finish: 74 W, 3rd in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 5th in division
Offseason Acquisition: Lots of potential options for the future. After starting 2022 as a NL West contender, the front office hit the reset button. The offseason saw some more veterans get shipped elsewhere along with a few prospects, including James Outman (could be an interesting trade to look back on). Among other notable names, Jeferson Quero stands out as the potential backstop of the future for the Mibble Dodgers.
Breakout/Sleeper: Feels like cheating here, but let's go with Miguel Vargas. A third baseman in the minors last year, he is expected to be the Opening Day second baseman in Los Angeles. Vargas has been a .300/.380/.480 hitter at minimum every year since joining the Dodgers system, not to mention speed and power. There is a lot to like here including arb control through 2028.
State of the Farm: Good and getting deeper with the flurry of rebuilding trades over the past nine months. Over 100 non-Dodgers prospects are on the payroll, including a laundry list of SS (Ronny Mauricio and Edwin Arroyo among others). In addition many of the homegrown prospects remain under control (Cartaya, Busch, Pages, Miller, Stone).
Biggest Question Mark: Filling out the lineup card for 2023. Franco, deGrom, and Vargas could do enough some weeks to be a nuisance, but hard to envision this year's squad being more than that.
Arrow Up/Down: Neutral. Easy to say "down" based on last year's win total in a relatively weak division and having few remaining components of a competitive active roster. However, there are enough nice pieces to build around and cap flexibility with eyes on 2024 and beyond.
Arizona Diamondbacks
'22 Finish: 59 W, 5th in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 4th in division
Offseason Acquisition: Tons of movement via trade and free agency. Out went Francisco Lindor's mega-salary, in came Christian Yelich's comparatively smaller salary. Nimmo, Rodon, and Montgomery were the biggest gets in free agency in addition to numerous lower $ deals that might pan out well (i.e. Grossman).
Breakout/Sleeper: Oscar Colas. Likely to be the regular in RF on the South Side, Colas comes with a fair amount of hype. With a general lack of star power on the offensive side of the roster, one of Mo's earliest acquisitions could be a key piece for the rest of the decade for the Dbacks.
State of the Farm: Solid. The prior regime did not necessarily leave the cupboard bare, but fans probably would have liked a little more to work with for a rebuild. Can't scoff at guys like Jordan Lawlar, Brandon Pfaadt, and 2022 draftee Druw Jones though.
Biggest Question Mark: Will the 2023 lineup get enough production to be competitive? Some might have picked Rodon's health here, but it's the quality of the depth on the active roster that will determine how far up the standings Arizona can push this summer.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. The 2023 Opening Day roster on paper certainly looks better than the 2022 iteration. Continued shrewd moves in the FA and trade markets will be important to accelerating the Arizona timeline, especially while the NL West lacks an obvious 100-win candidate.
San Francisco Giants
'22 Finish: 87 W, 1st in division; lost in Wild Card round
'23 Prediction: 3rd in division
Offseason Acquisition: With pitching in good shape, the biggest pieces added were on the hitting side. The Giants are rolling the dice on bounceback campaigns from 1B Jared Walsh and 3B Anthony Rendon to fill out the lineup. If those two perform well (and play most of the year), the Giants have a good shot at defending their division title. But if not, the San Francisco offense might not be enough to fend off the other NL West contenders.
Breakout/Sleeper: David Villar. Giants fans can only hope that Joey Bart will finally start to fulfill his draft potential in 2023. However, a breakout year from David Villar might distract them. A 1.022 OPS at AAA in 366 PA last year and reasonably holding his own in a 52-game debut for the parent club suggest they might have something brewing at third base.
State of the Farm: Decent but maybe some work to do. Some recent grads from the prospect ranks (Villar, Ashcraft, etc.) have taken some of the edge off, and the Mibble Giants are not sitting on a pile of blue chippers like other organizations. Notable names include Addison Barger, Luis Matos, and Kyle Harrison.
Biggest Question Mark: The offense. The pitching is pretty good (Zac Gallen, Kevin Gausman, and a solid 'pen), but the offense feels risky and will need to prove itself for the Giants to repeat.
Arrow Up/Down: Down. Just feels a step back from how they looked in 2022, in part because their division mates generally improved over the winter. Frame of reference is important.
San Diego Padres
'22 Finish: 66 W, 4th in division; missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 2nd in division
Offseason Acquisition: Playing loose with the definition, Fernando Tatis, Jr. returning after a lost season (injuries, PEDs) will be a tremendous boost come late April in a loaded real-life Padres lineup. In Mibble, he'll find a number of new faces around him since the last time he was active, including this pundit's personal favorite player to watch - El Mago.
Breakout/Sleeper: He might be starting the season in the minors, but the Braves are kidding themselves if they think they are better off with Orlando Arcia and his below-average bat at SS than handing the keys over to Vaughn Grissom. In fairness he has some question marks in the field, no doubt. But it may only be a month or perhaps weeks until we see Grissom recalled and contribute.
State of the Farm: Overall the San Diego farm is middle of the pack, but they have two absolute studs in Francisco Alvarez and the rising James Wood that would improve even the best Mibble systems. Don't sleep on Jared Shuster either, who had a nice spring and earned himself at least a temporary MLB rotation spot to begin 2023.
Biggest Question Mark: Who's playing first? If the Padres can find a serviceable solution there, don't be surprised to see them in the NL West hunt in July. There is enough talent on this roster to make a run at the division title despite appearing in a bit of a transition / retool phase.
Arrow Up/Down: Up. Might be too high on the Padres slotting them ahead of the reigning division champs even with some soft spots on the active roster. The star power and comparative roster balance should keep San Diego in the mix barring further retooling.
Colorado Rockies
'22 Finish: 87 W, 2nd in division; missed playoffs / consolation bracket finalist
'23 Prediction: 1st in division
Offseason Acquisition: New ownership. The roster is not remarkably different from six months ago, outside of some new faces restocking the bullpen including trade acquisition Scott Barlow. Even without significant acquisitions, the Rockies are the most complete team in the NL West on paper. Good health and even some moderate bouncebacks from the likes of Nick Castellanos and others will make Mike look great in his Mibble debut season.
Breakout/Sleeper: A lot of relatively established players and stars on the active roster, so let's go with homegrown Ezequiel Tovar taking over at short in Denver. A consensus top-25 prospect this spring, Tovar will have plenty of opportunity in 2023 to lock down a starting role for years to come. He only spent five games at AAA, but in just 66 games at AA in 2022, Tovar hit .318/.386/.546 with 13 HR and 17 SB. Can't hurt to play half your games at Coors as a rookie either.
State of the Farm: With Tovar likely graduating in a month, the farm needs some love moving forward. But the fans won't complain for now with a formidable lineup and pitching staff that should be in contention in the NL West for at least the next couple of years. That should buy some time to allow the real-life Rockies to develop its recent picks and IFAs.
Biggest Question Mark: Health. If the Rockies are overall healthy for most of the season - a reasonable question with some aging star pitchers (Kershaw) and walking injury risk Eloy Jimenez - they just need to take care of business on the field and hope the most extreme favorable outcomes for their division opponents do not come to fruition in 2023.
Arrow Up/Down: Neutral. That is not a bad thing. The Rockies barely lost the division to the Giants in 2022. Don't be surprised if new management turns out to be enough to lead this team into September baseball.
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AL West
A's
'22 Finish: 36 W 5th in AL West, Missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 5th place AL West
Offseason Acquisition: Rafael Devers.The A's spent heavy to wrestle Devers away from the Pirates who held the 20% discount on resigning him. This is an aggressive move from a rebuilding team, but absolutely the kind of guy you blow the bank for. 26 Years old, one of the top options at his position, this is someone you can build around. Honorable mention: Andrew Benintendi. Bennie hasn't quite lived up to the promise of his prospect days but he has become a darn good big league hitter and is still in his prime. The power was down a bit last year but if he can rebound back to the 15-20 HR range he showed early in his career he could do some damage in a deep White Sox lineup. Acquiring a player like Benintendi on a reasonable contract without sacrificing anything is a great move for a team like the A's, He is still young enough to be productive when the A's young guys are coming up or they can deal him to a contender this summer for more future assets.
Breakout/Sleeper: JP Sears. Drafted by the Mariners as a VERY high K reliever, Sears was tried out as a SP before being traded to Oakland and the early results have been good. The K's have predictably come down but the control remains pretty good and if he can get a little more experience and development with his breaking stuff he could end up a very solid SP.
State of the farm system: I've never been a huge fan of the A's draft/development team so that hampers my view of some of the homegrown talent here, but our A's management seems to have very nice taste in prospects having added SP Eury Perez and Logan T Allen to A's farmhand Tyler Soderstrom. Guys like Noah Miller, Bryan Acuna, and Luis Morales offer some development hope for the future.
Biggest question mark: OF. Benintendi is the only OF that's a lock for ABs at this point in the season, as JBJ is likely due for a bench spot and Siani has lots of competition for ABs in Cinci. The best bet for depth here might come from within, with whoever the A's call up from the farm to fill spots throughout the year. Gotta hope for a find here.
Arrow up/down?: Up. Up as in "nowhere to go but". I think this is a much improved team from last year, and headed in the right direction overall, so while I think they will improve over last year's record, a fifth place finish in the AL West still seems likely.
Astros
'22 Finish: 85 W 3rd in AL West, missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 4th place AL West
Offseason Acquisition: 1B Josh Bell. Bell has always been a bit of a streaky player, seeing his OPS drop nearly 300 points after a mid-season trade from Washington to San Diego. But I have a feeling that with a settled new contract and a nice ballpark to hit in in Cleveland, Bell is going to be a nice addition to the Astros lineup.
Breakout/Sleeper: The obvious pick here is for a full on Breakout from Hunter Brown. He needs to stay healthy all season but it looks like his breaking stuff is going to be plenty good to keep him in the rotation and fantasy relevant. Former international signing Pedro Leon is also a name to keep in mind as he has an intriguing blend of power and speed and can play on the dirt or in the grass making him a likely call up in the event of an injury to the big league club.
State of the farm system: The Astros are another team that likes to keep most of the talent in the real life system so many of their best are here, but when you have as much success as the Astros do they are usually drafting long after the highest impact talent has been picked through. Yanier Diaz and Drew Gilbert headline the class beyond Hunter Brown.
Biggest question mark: Pitching. The lineup in Houston is strong but, currently, the starting rotation only boasts one name, the aforementioned Brown. Injury riddled former top prospect Forrest Whitley looked healthy enough in spring ball this year that you can hope he will debut this year and could be a big shot in the arm to this Astros team if he is able to display some of the promise that made him a top-100 prospect. The Astros though are great at developing pitching so it is entirely possible that some middling names in their system make big strides and become solid big leaguers.
Arrow up/down?: Down. The Astros performed pretty well last year but a lack of depth at the big league level, not enough cap space to address those needs and improvements from division rivals in LAA and OAK probably mean a slightly worse finish than last year. A year of development from some of their young players and several big contracts expiring at the end of '23 could poise the 'Stros for a big bounce back in 2024.
Angels
'22 Finish: 57 W 4th in AL West, Missed playoffs
'23 Prediction: 3rd place AL West
Offseason Acquisition: Ozzie Albies. The Angels were not messing around in Free Agency this year. Using the $16.1 saved from re-signing Mike Trout to a more team friendly deal this offseason and dipping into the piggy bank for another $10.4 the Halos added Albies to handle the keystone. After injuries limited him to only 269 PA appearances last year the still only 26 year old looks to be healthy and dangerous this year. He has his sights set on a 30/30 season and could prove to be worth every bit of that contract.
Breakout/Sleeper: Mike Soroka. Already in his 5th contract year and largely forgotten as a fantasy asset it is easy to forget that Soroka is only 25 years old. Owner of a MLB career 2.86 career ERA he has been excellent on the very rare occasion that he is healthy and pitching. Looking to throw his first big league pitch since 2020 his return to the mound could provide a big lift to this Angels team.
State of the farm system: Considering how bad the IRL Angels have been at drafting/developing this system is surprisingly good. Some higher end impact talent in Noelvi Marte, and Jackson Merrill on the offensive side and Max Meyer, Gavin Williams, and Asa Lacy on the pitching side. Not to mention the recently graduated Gabriel Moreno and Reid Detmers.
Biggest question mark: Will the prospects catch up to the free agents? There is a mixed strategy going on here, with some high impact kids on the farm that will bolster the future but also some high dollar veteran free agents to make the current team competitive. Neither a full rebuild nor a pedal to the floor championship run, it will be interesting to see if the timing all comes together with the youngsters contributing before the vets age out or leave as salary cap casualties.
Arrow up/down?: Up. I'm not sure I'm ready to pick the Angels to make the playoffs quite yet, but there is enough talent here that some middling prospects could be dealt to help bolster the current team without hurting the future too much. This is a team on the way up, rebuilding on the fly. I think division titles are in the near future, but probably not this year. Baby steps.
Mariners
'22 Finish: 119 W Division Winner! Loss in ALCS
'23 Prediction: 2nd in AL West
Offseason Acquisition: Martin Perez Rangers SP. Coming off of a breakout age 31 season that showed Perez post a 2.89 ERA, 1.25 WHip and a career best 7.7 K/9 to go along with 12 W The MAriners were able to pry Perez away from the Rangers despite a %30 hometown discount on a surprisingly reasonable 2 year $5.0 contract. While some projections are skeptical of the gains made last year I don't see anything in the peripherals that suggest Perez can't be a solid rotation piece and 3 category contributor that the M's were able to add without sacrificing anything other than a little bit of cap space.
Breakout/Sleeper: Christian Arroyo Red Sox 2B. Arroyo is a former 1st round pick and fairly well thought of prospect who never quite got full time run to show what he could do. Injuries prevented him from getting that opportunity fully again last year. Logging a career best 300 PA, Arroyo managed a 102 wRC+ while dramatically reducing his K rate. With the injury to Trevor Story opening up everyday ABs at 2B and the new baserunning rules Arroyo could post double digit HRs and SBs if all goes well and if the gains he made in contact last year hold up he could find himself near the top of the lineup as well, boosting his roto value further.
State of the Farm system: The M's have been relatively conservative with their farm system, opting to hold on to most of the home grown talent in the system and use capital to address the MLB roster rather than prospects. They dealt away C prospect Harry Ford, but were able to replace him with Pirates backstop Henry Davis. A few high upside international signings and the realf life clubs ability to develop pitching help to keep this system stocked.
Biggest Question mark: Depth. The Mariners can run out a solid lineup most days, they have a very good top 3 rotation and two releif aces with Helsley and Duran. Jose Quintana is already injured and there isn't much multi-position eligibility among the hitters here to help cover off days. A couple of lasting injuries or surprise ineffectiveness could really put a strain on this team.
Arrow up/Down?: Neutral. I fully expect Seattle to compete for a division title and make a playoff run again this year. The depth issues prevent me from making them a pick to win it all, but with some in-season moves or production from surprise places could definitely put them near the top.
Texas Rangers
'22 Finish: 115 W 2nd in AL West, Loss in ALDS
'23 Prediction: 1st place AL West
Offseason Acquisition: Starting pitching. The Rangers rebuilt their rotation with FA addition Luis Castillo as well as trade acquisitions Justin Verlander, Mike Clevinger, and Joey Luchessi. That's a solid top 4, all brought in in one offseason.
Breakout/Sleeper: Oniel Cruz, Vinnie Pasquantino and Daulton Varsho all have the capacity to truly breakout this year, but they are boring picks as they all have some pedigree of note. I will focus on a minor sleeper pick here, Phillies 1B Darrick Hall. With the unfortunate injury to Rhys Hoskins likely keeping him out all year, Hall's path to ABs is much clearer. He has fairly substantial platoon splits that will probably keep him on the bench against most lefties but he can do enough damage against RHP to make it worthwhile. His K rate will need to come down from the %30 number he posted last year, but he showed enough of an eye in the minors that I think that can happen and there is 30+ HR power in his bat if his OBP can sustain a high enough rate to keep him in the lineup.
State of the Farm system: The Rangers have always liked to trade and much of the competitive roster they currently sport was acquired by dealing from the system. That being said there is some real high end talent in a system lacking a little bit of depth. Grayson Rodriguez and Ricky Tiedmann are top flight arms nearly ready to contribute in MLB and Harry Ford and Edouard Julien are intriguing bats to follow.
Biggest question mark: Bullpen. There are guys here in positions that should garner some holds, but it will require some diligence swapping guys in and out as there is a lack of truly set it and forget it stalwarts in the pen. But I have a feeling there may be some new names here before the trade deadline comes around.
Arrow up/down?: Up. A second place finish and 2nd round playoff exit displayed a solid performance last year, but there is so much depth here that I would be surprised if the Rangers didn't win the West this year and end up with a higher playoff seeding this go around. They are a threat to be our first ever two-time champion.
